Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Idah, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Idah has 27,415 buildings with a viable rooftop and 613 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦47bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

27,415

Usable roof area

2.73 km²

613 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦47bn/yr

40.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Idah

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦47bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.37tn

NPV₦220bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy14.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity65.8 MWp

Capex₦66.2bn

Year-one energy value₦58.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.68tn

NPV₦455bn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Idah's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 65.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦66.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦58.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦455bn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Idah pays back quickly

Of the 27,179 buildings in Idah with a modelled payback, 66.7% pay back inside five years and 34.1% inside three.

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How much of Idah's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Idah consume 58.8 GWh/yr but want 73.3 GWh/yr. The 20% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Idah

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Idah actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 27,179 buildings with a modelled result out of 27,415 in Idah. 21,992 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,274 (34%)

Under 5 years18,121 (67%)

Under 7 years21,961 (81%)

Under 10 years24,377 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,982 (87%)

Above 15%21,992 (80%)

Above 20%19,217 (70%)

Above 25%15,912 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

47.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

14.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

250k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Idah.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Idah

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	15,079	5,987	₦26.7bn	₦15.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	9,948	2,764	₦17.2bn	₦9.16bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	2,388	826	₦3.22bn	₦3.16bn	27%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	26,419	8,859	₦42.2bn	₦22.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	519	364	₦2.7bn	₦2.66bn	39%	2.9 yr
Anchor	303	243	₦2.09bn	₦2.05bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Retail	134	78	₦26m	₦26m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	29	24	₦9.4m	₦9.4m	43%	2.4 yr
Hospitality	8	6	₦20.7m	₦20.7m	41%	2.4 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦1.19m	₦1.19m	41%	2.6 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦3.7m	₦3.7m	71%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,338	3,453	₦22.6bn	₦12.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	5,776	1,871	₦6.29bn	₦3.22bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	5,178	1,891	₦546m	₦273m	11%	8.1 yr
30 50m2	3,493	1,246	₦1.67bn	₦688m	19%	5.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,566	1,081	₦13.3bn	₦8.81bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	64	35	₦2.58bn	₦2.3bn	51%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	21,398	6,749	₦16.3bn	₦16.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	3,762	1,756	₦20.1bn	₦5.71bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	1,205	607	₦7.17bn	₦2.79bn	51%	2.1 yr
Urban	1,050	465	₦3.43bn	₦2.86bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	8,789	1,175	₦633m	₦633m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	4,305	2,480	₦8.06bn	₦4.28bn	61%	1.6 yr
Residential	4,296	2,471	₦32.5bn	₦16.9bn	63%	1.6 yr
Shed	3,823	1,739	₦195m	₦195m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	3,382	725	₦669m	₦669m	25%	4.4 yr
Apartment	1,407	210	₦101m	₦101m	25%	4.4 yr
Duplex	417	59	₦27.4m	₦27.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	269	145	₦965m	₦942m	37%	2.9 yr
Institutional	162	131	₦1.35bn	₦1.32bn	49%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	133	77	₦25m	₦25m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	86	85	₦1.21bn	₦1.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	84	69	₦439m	₦439m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	27,415	9,577	₦47bn	₦27.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	26,750	9,098	₦42.8bn	₦23.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	361	235	₦2.19bn	₦2.15bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	304	244	₦2.09bn	₦2.05bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	12,161	2,014	₦2.9bn	₦2.89bn
3.0	7,835	4,011	₦28.4bn	₦17.9bn
0.0	3,803	1,735	₦192m	₦192m
2.0	2,592	1,284	₦9.95bn	₦3.72bn
1.0	746	361	₦4.02bn	₦1.38bn
5.0	220	129	₦1.18bn	₦1.15bn
6.0	58	43	₦354m	₦354m