Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Mopa-Muro, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Mopa-Muro has 15,863 buildings with a viable rooftop and 237 MWp of roof capacity. 32% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.94bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

15,863

Usable roof area

1.06 km²

237 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.94bn/yr

9.47 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mopa-Muro

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.94bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.94bn

Lifetime cash saved₦483bn

NPV₦76.1bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy10.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity38 MWp

Capex₦35bn

Year-one energy value₦30.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.42tn

NPV₦239bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mopa-Muro's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 38 MWp
Capital cost: ₦35bn
Year 1 savings: ₦30.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦239bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mopa-Muro pays back quickly

Of the 14,857 buildings in Mopa-Muro with a modelled payback, 50.9% pay back inside five years and 33.6% inside three.

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How much of Mopa-Muro's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mopa-Muro consume 15.7 GWh/yr but want 26 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mopa-Muro

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mopa-Muro actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 14,857 buildings with a modelled result out of 15,863 in Mopa-Muro. 8,313 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years4,994 (34%)

Under 5 years7,558 (51%)

Under 7 years8,311 (56%)

Under 10 years9,525 (64%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%9,272 (58%)

Above 15%8,313 (52%)

Above 20%7,715 (49%)

Above 25%7,105 (45%)

CO₂ avoided

17 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.96 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

44.4k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mopa-Muro.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mopa-Muro

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	9,142	3,306	₦4.9bn	₦4.9bn	17%	4.4 yr
D	6,721	1,810	₦4.04bn	₦4.04bn	17%	5.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,887	2,469	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	9%	8.6 yr
Commercial General	1,509	1,354	₦3.98bn	₦3.98bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,231	1,070	₦203m	₦203m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	143	139	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	90	82	₦118m	₦118m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	2	₦7.05m	₦7.05m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	6,420	1,179	₦147m	₦147m	3%	18.4 yr
100 250m2	3,740	1,639	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	2,940	1,203	₦729m	₦729m	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	1,920	629	₦148m	₦148m	11%	9.1 yr
250 1000m2	830	457	₦3.77bn	₦3.77bn	57%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	13	9	₦605m	₦605m	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	7,038	3,310	₦4.26bn	₦4.26bn	33%	3.1 yr
Unclassified	5,438	460	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	3%	18.9 yr
Rural	2,098	956	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	1,289	390	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	6,189	734	₦88.1m	₦88.1m	3%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	3,889	814	₦378m	₦378m	15%	6.9 yr
Residential	2,809	921	₦3.07bn	₦3.07bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,231	1,070	₦203m	₦203m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	949	829	₦3.1bn	₦3.1bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	473	442	₦585m	₦585m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	109	103	₦800m	₦800m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	41	41	₦192m	₦192m	87%	1.1 yr
School	35	35	₦77.8m	₦77.8m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	34	32	₦251m	₦251m	51%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	32	30	₦21.8m	₦21.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	28	25	₦7.86m	₦7.86m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	15,863	5,116	₦8.94bn	₦8.94bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	14,295	3,704	₦4.16bn	₦4.16bn	13%	6.9 yr
SME High	1,422	1,271	₦3.68bn	₦3.68bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	146	141	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	6,152	717	₦81.5m	₦81.5m
3.0	3,770	1,694	₦4.61bn	₦4.61bn
2.0	3,735	1,307	₦861m	₦859m
1.0	1,050	402	₦103m	₦103m
5.0	795	672	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn
4.0	277	244	₦963m	₦962m
6.0	84	80	₦889m	₦889m