Kogi State

Rooftop solar in Yagba East, Kogi: what the roofs are worth

Yagba East has 33,305 buildings with a viable rooftop and 550 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦29.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,305

Usable roof area

2.46 km²

550 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦29.1bn/yr

26.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yagba East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦29.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦28.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.45tn

NPV₦233bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy22.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity87.1 MWp

Capex₦88.2bn

Year-one energy value₦82.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.88tn

NPV₦659bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yagba East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 87.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦88.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦659bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yagba East pays back quickly

Of the 32,573 buildings in Yagba East with a modelled payback, 64.2% pay back inside five years and 33.3% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Yagba East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yagba East consume 40.8 GWh/yr but want 63.1 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Yagba East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yagba East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 32,573 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,305 in Yagba East. 23,447 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,857 (33%)

Under 5 years20,926 (64%)

Under 7 years23,446 (72%)

Under 10 years24,943 (77%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%24,573 (74%)

Above 15%23,447 (70%)

Above 20%21,670 (65%)

Above 25%19,318 (58%)

CO₂ avoided

51 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

15 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

194k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yagba East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yagba East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	16,200	5,570	₦17.3bn	₦16.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	15,591	5,113	₦10.6bn	₦10bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	1,507	833	₦1.21bn	₦1.21bn	33%	3.4 yr
B	7	1	₦6.01m	₦6.01m	27%	3.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,977	9,319	₦22.6bn	₦21.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	1,208	1,143	₦4.1bn	₦4.1bn	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	604	599	₦108m	₦108m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	255	230	₦1.94bn	₦1.94bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	255	221	₦316m	₦316m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	5	5	₦9.25m	₦9.25m	73%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦3.81m	₦3.81m	37%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	10,520	2,238	₦257m	₦257m	5%	16.1 yr
100 250m2	10,077	4,523	₦14.3bn	₦13.6bn	27%	3.9 yr
50 100m2	6,970	2,432	₦1.84bn	₦1.82bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,115	1,354	₦421m	₦341m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	1,607	955	₦11bn	₦10.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	16	15	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn	67%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	9,947	3,999	₦8.16bn	₦8.16bn	27%	3.9 yr
Unclassified	9,243	1,328	₦4.7bn	₦4.4bn	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,475	3,156	₦7.98bn	₦7.98bn	29%	3.9 yr
Urban	5,767	2,550	₦7.22bn	₦6.61bn	27%	3.9 yr
Rural	1,873	484	₦1.03bn	₦937m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	11,909	2,487	₦291m	₦291m	5%	15.4 yr
Residential Small	8,048	2,594	₦2.28bn	₦2.19bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	6,875	3,209	₦19.4bn	₦18.5bn	29%	3.9 yr
Residential Formal	3,721	947	₦643m	₦643m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	935	883	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	604	599	₦108m	₦108m	59%	1.9 yr
Duplex	347	65	₦39.3m	₦39.3m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	228	204	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	125	125	₦513m	₦513m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	89	79	₦50.1m	₦50.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	83	74	₦421m	₦421m	87%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	83	70	₦37.2m	₦37.2m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,245	11,517	₦29.1bn	₦28.1bn
Commercial	60	0	₦979k	₦979k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,986	10,276	₦24bn	₦23bn	27%	4.1 yr
SME High	1,061	1,008	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	258	233	₦1.95bn	₦1.95bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	11,541	2,247	₦244m	₦244m
3.0	10,217	4,839	₦22bn	₦21.3bn
2.0	5,160	1,908	₦3.35bn	₦3.06bn
4.0	4,005	1,089	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn
1.0	1,958	1,011	₦345m	₦343m
5.0	356	355	₦1bn	₦1bn
6.0	68	68	₦328m	₦328m