Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Cross River State: buildings, spend and payback

667,783 buildings in Cross River State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦846bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 34% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

667,783

Usable roof area

66.5 km²

14.9 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦846bn/yr

791 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Cross River

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦846bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦775bn

Lifetime cash saved₦39.7tn

NPV₦6.18tn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy474 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.44 GWp

Capex₦2.4tn

Year-one energy value₦2.01tn

Lifetime energy value₦94.2tn

NPV₦15.8tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Cross River State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.44 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.4tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.01tn/yr
NPV: ₦15.8tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Cross River State pays back quickly

Of the 656,218 buildings in Cross River State with a modelled payback, 67.4% pay back inside five years and 32.9% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

67.4%

Payback under 3 years

32.9%

IRR above 20%

69.5%

Under 3 years · 33%3 – 5 years · 34%5 – 7 years · 10%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 15%

Coverage: 98% of buildings in Cross River State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Cross River State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Cross River State consume 1.23 TWh/yr but want 1.71 TWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 72%Suppressed · 28%

Energy wanted

1.71 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.23 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

474 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Cross River State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 656,218 buildings with a modelled result out of 667,783 in Cross River State. 509,770 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years215,773 (33%)

Under 5 years442,137 (67%)

Under 7 years509,194 (78%)

Under 10 years555,730 (85%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%545,612 (82%)

Above 15%509,770 (76%)

Above 20%463,879 (69%)

Above 25%339,223 (51%)

Electricity billing bands in Cross River State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Cross River State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	339,448	123,828	₦494bn	₦446bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	166,694	63,496	₦229bn	₦210bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	82,515	20,560	₦77.7bn	₦75.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	53,126	14,437	₦24.6bn	₦23.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	26,000	5,551	₦20.8bn	₦20.6bn	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	615,177	191,539	₦603bn	₦541bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	23,547	16,106	₦105bn	₦104bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	11,332	7,477	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	8,276	6,268	₦108bn	₦102bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	4,105	2,760	₦5.96bn	₦5.96bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	4,094	2,987	₦14.8bn	₦14.7bn	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	590	291	₦5.59bn	₦5.13bn	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	401	280	₦601m	₦601m	53%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	195	149	₦237m	₦237m	63%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	60	13	₦193m	₦191m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	6	2	₦3.05m	₦3.05m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	220,306	81,606	₦311bn	₦286bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	146,386	45,240	₦54bn	₦50.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	141,192	42,454	₦7.79bn	₦7.57bn	9%	12.9 yr
30 50m2	87,098	26,679	₦11bn	₦10.2bn	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	71,503	31,140	₦366bn	₦334bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	1,298	753	₦96.8bn	₦87.1bn	41%	2.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	204,010	59,738	₦161bn	₦157bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	184,063	65,664	₦215bn	₦207bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	115,307	59,084	₦170bn	₦167bn	41%	2.4 yr
Unclassified	104,098	17,747	₦136bn	₦106bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	60,305	25,639	₦165bn	₦138bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	174,132	66,221	₦474bn	₦419bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	166,738	56,851	₦67bn	₦62.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	126,638	32,054	₦4.26bn	₦4.26bn	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Informal	93,796	20,122	₦35.1bn	₦32.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	47,357	14,614	₦21.3bn	₦21.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	11,404	7,547	₦2.56bn	₦2.56bn	41%	2.6 yr
Commercial	10,150	7,212	₦52.2bn	₦51.5bn	47%	2.4 yr
Institutional	7,883	5,994	₦84.5bn	₦80bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	5,983	3,647	₦25bn	₦24.7bn	41%	2.6 yr
Apartment	4,101	934	₦775m	₦775m	25%	4.6 yr
Industrial Site	3,256	2,373	₦11.6bn	₦11.5bn	67%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	2,486	1,924	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	658,744	224,129	₦802bn	₦733bn
Industrial	7,188	3,294	₦33.9bn	₦33.2bn
Retail	714	249	₦7.03bn	₦7bn
Farmland	540	20	₦626m	₦372m
Farmyard	284	100	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn
Orchard	273	44	₦125m	₦125m
Commercial	40	36	₦710m	₦710m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	638,578	207,374	₦642bn	₦579bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	16,967	11,338	₦81.8bn	₦80.5bn	43%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	12,238	9,160	₦122bn	₦116bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	240,534	103,138	₦580bn	₦526bn
2.0	142,879	47,424	₦86.2bn	₦76.4bn
0.0	125,813	31,856	₦4.31bn	₦4.31bn
4.0	104,511	27,124	₦112bn	₦109bn
1.0	44,479	12,477	₦9.54bn	₦7.75bn
5.0	7,338	4,512	₦23.2bn	₦22.9bn
6.0	2,229	1,341	₦30bn	₦29bn