Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Obubra, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Obubra has 33,955 buildings with a viable rooftop and 713 MWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦52.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,955

Usable roof area

3.18 km²

713 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦52.3bn/yr

51.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obubra

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦52.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦50.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.55tn

NPV₦407bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy25.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity135 MWp

Capex₦134bn

Year-one energy value₦122bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.75tn

NPV₦974bn

Median IRR99%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Obubra's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 135 MWp
Capital cost: ₦134bn
Year 1 savings: ₦122bn/yr
NPV: ₦974bn
Median IRR: 99%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obubra pays back quickly

Of the 33,573 buildings in Obubra with a modelled payback, 74.1% pay back inside five years and 46.5% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Obubra's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obubra consume 66.3 GWh/yr but want 91.5 GWh/yr. The 27% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Obubra

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obubra actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,573 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,955 in Obubra. 27,231 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,604 (46%)

Under 5 years24,877 (74%)

Under 7 years27,208 (81%)

Under 10 years29,160 (87%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,734 (85%)

Above 15%27,231 (80%)

Above 20%25,647 (76%)

Above 25%21,914 (65%)

CO₂ avoided

83 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

25.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

231k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obubra.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Obubra

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,645	10,916	₦37.8bn	₦36.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	10,270	4,785	₦14.5bn	₦14.3bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	40	0	₦5.86m	₦5.86m	9%	13.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	30,705	12,738	₦38.5bn	₦36.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,501	1,365	₦8.37bn	₦8.33bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	834	759	₦207m	₦207m	43%	2.4 yr
Anchor	514	474	₦3.82bn	₦3.63bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	172	156	₦393m	₦393m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	148	130	₦738m	₦733m	71%	1.4 yr
Hospitality	30	30	₦172m	₦170m	69%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	27	25	₦24.9m	₦24.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	24	24	₦53m	₦53m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,936	6,016	₦24.6bn	₦23.6bn	39%	2.9 yr
50 100m2	7,985	3,260	₦3.97bn	₦3.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	6,882	2,901	₦575m	₦563m	11%	7.6 yr
30 50m2	4,072	1,633	₦684m	₦682m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,065	1,878	₦22bn	₦21.2bn	63%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	15	13	₦514m	₦514m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	10,452	6,198	₦19.7bn	₦19.3bn	53%	1.9 yr
Dense Urban	10,103	5,590	₦20.9bn	₦20.2bn	59%	1.9 yr
Rural	6,884	2,770	₦7.41bn	₦6.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,516	1,143	₦4.3bn	₦4.15bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	10,565	4,434	₦5.77bn	₦5.73bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	10,401	4,606	₦30.9bn	₦29.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	6,222	2,052	₦379m	₦379m	9%	12.9 yr
Residential Formal	2,339	1,365	₦1.25bn	₦1.1bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	1,158	271	₦224m	₦224m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	861	784	₦232m	₦232m	43%	2.4 yr
Commercial	855	772	₦4.52bn	₦4.5bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	419	383	₦1.98bn	₦1.98bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	254	231	₦2.14bn	₦2.12bn	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	165	148	₦796m	₦796m	83%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	115	102	₦512m	₦507m	71%	1.4 yr
School	111	104	₦364m	₦364m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,955	15,701	₦52.3bn	₦50.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,162	14,072	₦41.1bn	₦39.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,145	1,039	₦6.79bn	₦6.75bn	61%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	648	590	₦4.45bn	₦4.26bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,518	6,165	₦36.3bn	₦35.1bn
2.0	10,494	4,554	₦8.13bn	₦7.59bn
0.0	6,089	1,953	₦334m	₦334m
1.0	3,269	1,250	₦695m	₦674m
4.0	2,146	1,374	₦5.7bn	₦5.54bn
5.0	346	316	₦754m	₦732m
6.0	93	89	₦437m	₦437m