Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Ikom, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Ikom has 54,655 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.25 GWp of roof capacity. 36% run a generator, and together they spend ₦53.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,655

Usable roof area

5.56 km²

1.25 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦53.4bn/yr

50.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikom

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦53.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦52.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.79tn

NPV₦430bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy44.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity196 MWp

Capex₦183bn

Year-one energy value₦148bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.98tn

NPV₦1.16tn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ikom's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 196 MWp
Capital cost: ₦183bn
Year 1 savings: ₦148bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.16tn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikom pays back quickly

Of the 53,284 buildings in Ikom with a modelled payback, 66.8% pay back inside five years and 34.1% inside three.

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How much of Ikom's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikom consume 88.9 GWh/yr but want 133 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikom

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikom actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 53,284 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,655 in Ikom. 41,120 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,178 (34%)

Under 5 years35,606 (67%)

Under 7 years41,077 (77%)

Under 10 years45,004 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%44,223 (81%)

Above 15%41,120 (75%)

Above 20%37,221 (68%)

Above 25%32,164 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

96.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

25.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

44.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

244k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikom.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikom

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	28,695	9,702	₦34.8bn	₦34.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	15,087	6,439	₦14.8bn	₦14.7bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	10,873	3,398	₦3.73bn	₦3.72bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,350	14,573	₦31.1bn	₦30.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	3,548	2,458	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	2,088	1,358	₦569m	₦569m	39%	2.9 yr
Industrial	816	544	₦2.57bn	₦2.57bn	65%	1.6 yr
Anchor	675	502	₦6.95bn	₦6.83bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	88	54	₦84.2m	₦84.2m	41%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	54	29	₦44.1m	₦44.1m	35%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	30	18	₦184m	₦184m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	4	1	₦8.17m	₦8.17m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	2	2	₦13.5m	₦13.5m	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,174	6,370	₦20.9bn	₦20.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	12,697	4,149	₦822m	₦699m	9%	8.9 yr
50 100m2	11,347	3,534	₦3.16bn	₦3.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
250 1000m2	7,222	3,172	₦22.8bn	₦22.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	7,143	2,267	₦777m	₦777m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	72	47	₦4.92bn	₦4.9bn	47%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	18,378	8,018	₦12.3bn	₦12.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	13,018	4,757	₦13.4bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	8,877	979	₦7.59bn	₦7.44bn	19%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	7,833	2,895	₦7.94bn	₦7.94bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	6,549	2,890	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	14,484	4,865	₦3.76bn	₦3.57bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	13,836	5,209	₦26bn	₦25.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	9,051	2,051	₦287m	₦287m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,562	1,102	₦495m	₦495m	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	4,543	1,080	₦442m	₦439m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,022	1,303	₦366m	₦366m	39%	2.9 yr
Commercial	1,743	1,222	₦6.77bn	₦6.77bn	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	925	671	₦5.83bn	₦5.83bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	867	587	₦2.73bn	₦2.73bn	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial Site	674	445	₦2.24bn	₦2.24bn	67%	1.6 yr
Apartment	509	127	₦40m	₦40m	25%	4.4 yr
Agricultural	275	109	₦61.1m	₦61.1m	29%	3.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,406	19,482	₦53.1bn	₦52.5bn
Retail	249	57	₦282m	₦282m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	50,415	16,593	₦34.1bn	₦33.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,754	1,903	₦9.84bn	₦9.84bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	1,486	1,043	₦9.5bn	₦9.37bn	57%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	20,478	9,085	₦37.5bn	₦36.9bn
2.0	11,009	3,757	₦3.31bn	₦3.31bn
0.0	9,185	2,122	₦329m	₦329m
4.0	8,017	2,276	₦3.36bn	₦3.34bn
1.0	3,948	975	₦351m	₦350m
5.0	1,534	1,004	₦3.89bn	₦3.89bn
6.0	484	320	₦4.62bn	₦4.62bn