Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Bekwarra, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Bekwarra has 33,146 buildings with a viable rooftop and 659 MWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

33,146

Usable roof area

2.94 km²

659 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.2bn/yr

19.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bekwarra

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.03tn

NPV₦165bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy15.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity74.7 MWp

Capex₦77bn

Year-one energy value₦73.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.49tn

NPV₦593bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bekwarra's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 74.7 MWp
Capital cost: ₦77bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦593bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bekwarra pays back quickly

Of the 33,014 buildings in Bekwarra with a modelled payback, 64.2% pay back inside five years and 33.2% inside three.

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How much of Bekwarra's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bekwarra consume 26.4 GWh/yr but want 42 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bekwarra

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bekwarra actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 33,014 buildings with a modelled result out of 33,146 in Bekwarra. 24,003 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,967 (33%)

Under 5 years21,185 (64%)

Under 7 years23,986 (73%)

Under 10 years26,044 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,344 (76%)

Above 15%24,003 (72%)

Above 20%22,167 (67%)

Above 25%19,010 (57%)

CO₂ avoided

35.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

163k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bekwarra.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bekwarra

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,189	7,640	₦13.7bn	₦13.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	9,902	3,269	₦6.35bn	₦6.19bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	55	33	₦82.4m	₦82.4m	71%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,906	9,813	₦15.1bn	₦14.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	502	465	₦2bn	₦2bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	373	342	₦2.1bn	₦2.1bn	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial	189	150	₦522m	₦521m	71%	1.4 yr
Worship	123	122	₦406m	₦406m	65%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	36	36	₦9.96m	₦9.96m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	16	13	₦10.8m	₦10.8m	41%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦2.89m	₦2.89m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	12,848	4,749	₦10.9bn	₦10.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	8,190	2,141	₦264m	₦264m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	5,947	1,861	₦1.11bn	₦1.11bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	3,965	1,171	₦270m	₦270m	11%	8.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,183	1,012	₦7.22bn	₦7.15bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	13	8	₦434m	₦434m	65%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	14,544	4,023	₦7.86bn	₦7.79bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban Centre	7,996	2,955	₦5.37bn	₦5.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	6,375	3,457	₦5.76bn	₦5.76bn	69%	1.6 yr
Unclassified	4,231	507	₦1.17bn	₦1.07bn	11%	9.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,220	4,520	₦13.4bn	₦13.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	10,128	2,349	₦264m	₦264m	7%	13.9 yr
Residential Small	8,759	2,927	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	651	0	₦18.1m	₦18.1m	23%	4.9 yr
Institutional	352	317	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	161	161	₦834m	₦834m	69%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	157	123	₦437m	₦437m	71%	1.4 yr
Educational Facility	136	125	₦594m	₦594m	87%	1.1 yr
Apartment	89	0	₦1.85m	₦1.85m	25%	4.4 yr
School	89	84	₦164m	₦164m	85%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	74	65	₦839m	₦837m	53%	1.9 yr
Agricultural	54	17	₦9.61m	₦9.61m	23%	4.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	33,146	10,942	₦20.2bn	₦19.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	32,407	10,276	₦16.7bn	₦16.4bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	561	491	₦2.62bn	₦2.62bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	178	175	₦847m	₦847m	69%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,848	5,300	₦14.6bn	₦14.3bn
0.0	10,173	2,361	₦271m	₦271m
2.0	7,405	2,519	₦4.42bn	₦4.34bn
1.0	1,881	669	₦276m	₦276m
4.0	833	88	₦568m	₦568m
5.0	6	5	₦62.4m	₦62.4m