Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Yala, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Yala has 57,464 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.03 GWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

57,464

Usable roof area

4.59 km²

1.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25.5bn/yr

24.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Yala

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦25.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.34tn

NPV₦207bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy22 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity130 MWp

Capex₦134bn

Year-one energy value₦123bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.85tn

NPV₦990bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Yala's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 130 MWp
Capital cost: ₦134bn
Year 1 savings: ₦123bn/yr
NPV: ₦990bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Yala pays back quickly

Of the 57,139 buildings in Yala with a modelled payback, 60.1% pay back inside five years and 20.0% inside three.

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How much of Yala's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Yala consume 38.9 GWh/yr but want 60.9 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Yala

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Yala actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 57,139 buildings with a modelled result out of 57,464 in Yala. 40,949 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,415 (20%)

Under 5 years34,337 (60%)

Under 7 years40,921 (72%)

Under 10 years45,149 (79%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,845 (76%)

Above 15%40,949 (71%)

Above 20%36,724 (64%)

Above 25%29,005 (50%)

CO₂ avoided

46.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

22 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

316k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Yala.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Yala

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	39,078	7,433	₦15.1bn	₦15bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	18,162	3,904	₦10.2bn	₦10bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	224	147	₦271m	₦271m	61%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	54,782	9,156	₦17.5bn	₦17.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,271	1,111	₦4.05bn	₦4.05bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	533	444	₦3.08bn	₦3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	522	474	₦135m	₦135m	47%	2.4 yr
Industrial	169	134	₦507m	₦507m	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	83	75	₦68.4m	₦68.4m	65%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	51	46	₦45.1m	₦45.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	27	23	₦97.5m	₦97.5m	67%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	26	21	₦59.4m	₦59.4m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	19,408	4,433	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	16,163	2,585	₦2.29bn	₦2.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	11,945	2,146	₦313m	₦312m	7%	14.9 yr
30 50m2	7,111	1,261	₦381m	₦380m	11%	9.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,800	1,037	₦10.2bn	₦9.98bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	37	22	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	24,560	5,931	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	15,987	4,276	₦7.41bn	₦7.41bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	12,605	711	₦3.54bn	₦3.45bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	4,312	566	₦1.4bn	₦1.34bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	21,447	3,547	₦2.57bn	₦2.57bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	16,797	3,686	₦14.6bn	₦14.5bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	14,825	1,918	₦238m	₦238m	7%	14.1 yr
Residential Formal	901	0	₦21.2m	₦21.2m	19%	5.6 yr
Commercial	615	587	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	49%	2.1 yr
Residential Informal	592	0	₦21.1m	₦21.1m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	565	513	₦174m	₦174m	49%	2.1 yr
Institutional	389	318	₦1.72bn	₦1.72bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	275	220	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	192	154	₦471m	₦471m	81%	1.4 yr
Apartment	158	0	₦3.45m	₦3.45m	25%	4.6 yr
Industrial Site	150	117	₦420m	₦419m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	57,464	11,484	₦25.5bn	₦25.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	55,850	10,082	₦18.9bn	₦18.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	932	843	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn	51%	2.1 yr
Enterprise	682	559	₦3.5bn	₦3.42bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	21,930	6,037	₦18.9bn	₦18.6bn
0.0	14,869	1,929	₦240m	₦240m
2.0	14,176	2,251	₦3.12bn	₦3.12bn
1.0	4,202	496	₦371m	₦371m
4.0	1,600	148	₦859m	₦859m
5.0	593	537	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn
6.0	94	86	₦891m	₦891m