Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Akpabuyo, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Akpabuyo has 29,040 buildings with a viable rooftop and 592 MWp of roof capacity. 35% run a generator, and together they spend ₦34.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

29,040

Usable roof area

2.64 km²

592 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦34.2bn/yr

33 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akpabuyo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦34.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.71tn

NPV₦265bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy20.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity124 MWp

Capex₦126bn

Year-one energy value₦108bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.09tn

NPV₦856bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akpabuyo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 124 MWp
Capital cost: ₦126bn
Year 1 savings: ₦108bn/yr
NPV: ₦856bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akpabuyo pays back quickly

Of the 28,954 buildings in Akpabuyo with a modelled payback, 71.8% pay back inside five years and 34.7% inside three.

Create a free account

How much of Akpabuyo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akpabuyo consume 48.7 GWh/yr but want 69.2 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Create a free account

Electricity billing bands in Akpabuyo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akpabuyo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 28,954 buildings with a modelled result out of 29,040 in Akpabuyo. 22,701 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,045 (35%)

Under 5 years20,775 (72%)

Under 7 years22,690 (78%)

Under 10 years23,582 (81%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,285 (80%)

Above 15%22,701 (78%)

Above 20%21,598 (74%)

Above 25%10,433 (36%)

CO₂ avoided

57.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

17.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

20.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

338k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akpabuyo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akpabuyo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	18,224	5,533	₦18.1bn	₦17.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	9,355	3,711	₦13.5bn	₦13.3bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	1,407	809	₦2.59bn	₦2.55bn	47%	2.1 yr
C	54	0	₦17.1m	₦17.1m	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	27,028	8,353	₦24.5bn	₦24bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	750	664	₦4.43bn	₦4.39bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	352	329	₦114m	₦114m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	314	270	₦3.81bn	₦3.77bn	61%	1.9 yr
Industrial	295	208	₦690m	₦686m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	282	211	₦275m	₦275m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	16	15	₦44.7m	₦44.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	3	3	₦309m	₦189m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,491	3,577	₦11.7bn	₦11.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	6,960	1,880	₦2.26bn	₦1.96bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	6,240	2,035	₦397m	₦392m	7%	14.1 yr
30 50m2	3,975	1,126	₦464m	₦442m	11%	8.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,333	1,405	₦16.1bn	₦15.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	41	30	₦3.3bn	₦3.17bn	61%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	14,533	4,012	₦14.5bn	₦14.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,960	4,794	₦14.3bn	₦14.2bn	61%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	6,025	484	₦2.91bn	₦2.52bn	21%	4.9 yr
Urban Centre	1,336	761	₦2.45bn	₦2.4bn	47%	2.4 yr
Rural	186	2	₦6.72m	₦6.72m	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,927	3,791	₦21.5bn	₦21.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	9,603	2,892	₦2.77bn	₦2.46bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	7,411	1,643	₦229m	₦229m	7%	14.1 yr
Institutional	453	370	₦3.78bn	₦3.75bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	360	338	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	352	329	₦114m	₦114m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	255	181	₦613m	₦610m	65%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	109	81	₦71m	₦71m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	98	87	₦654m	₦654m	79%	1.4 yr
Agricultural	87	27	₦13.4m	₦13.4m	21%	4.9 yr
Place Of Worship	79	57	₦35.1m	₦35.1m	59%	1.9 yr
School	64	59	₦237m	₦237m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	28,928	10,015	₦34.1bn	₦33.3bn
Farmland	61	0	₦4.77m	₦4.77m
Industrial	29	26	₦134m	₦134m
Orchard	22	12	₦3.06m	₦3.06m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	27,995	9,173	₦26.8bn	₦26.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	609	478	₦4.5bn	₦4.45bn	65%	1.6 yr
SME High	436	402	₦2.92bn	₦2.88bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,278	5,173	₦27.3bn	₦26.9bn
0.0	7,495	1,666	₦237m	₦237m
2.0	6,907	1,958	₦2.71bn	₦2.59bn
1.0	2,785	719	₦703m	₦497m
4.0	473	443	₦2.08bn	₦2bn
5.0	88	81	₦699m	₦699m
6.0	14	13	₦523m	₦523m