Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Obudu, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Obudu has 39,223 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.03 GWp of roof capacity. 40% run a generator, and together they spend ₦43.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

39,223

Usable roof area

4.57 km²

1.03 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦43.2bn/yr

38.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obudu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦43.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦42.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.21tn

NPV₦351bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy29.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity132 MWp

Capex₦137bn

Year-one energy value₦127bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.02tn

NPV₦1.02tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Obudu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 132 MWp
Capital cost: ₦137bn
Year 1 savings: ₦127bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.02tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obudu pays back quickly

Of the 38,935 buildings in Obudu with a modelled payback, 74.0% pay back inside five years and 38.4% inside three.

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How much of Obudu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obudu consume 55.2 GWh/yr but want 84.8 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obudu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obudu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 38,935 buildings with a modelled result out of 39,223 in Obudu. 31,855 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,957 (38%)

Under 5 years28,819 (74%)

Under 7 years31,845 (82%)

Under 10 years34,280 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%33,644 (86%)

Above 15%31,855 (81%)

Above 20%29,791 (76%)

Above 25%26,529 (68%)

CO₂ avoided

76.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

24 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

29.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

273k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obudu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Obudu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	21,811	9,379	₦29.5bn	₦29bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	12,676	5,594	₦12.6bn	₦12.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	4,736	524	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	25%	4.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	38,144	14,651	₦37.5bn	₦36.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Anchor	527	402	₦3.56bn	₦3.53bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	395	325	₦1.57bn	₦1.57bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	80	65	₦286m	₦286m	71%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	25	20	₦39.6m	₦39.6m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	22	15	₦158m	₦158m	53%	1.6 yr
Worship	17	9	₦76.5m	₦76.5m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	9	7	₦1.04m	₦1.04m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	3	3	₦10.5m	₦10.5m	65%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦215k	₦215k	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,395	6,315	₦18.6bn	₦18.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	7,908	2,829	₦344m	₦343m	9%	9.6 yr
50 100m2	5,919	2,305	₦1.86bn	₦1.86bn	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	5,915	2,515	₦21.2bn	₦20.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	4,041	1,514	₦368m	₦368m	19%	5.6 yr
Over 1000m2	45	19	₦715m	₦715m	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	17,499	5,016	₦8.77bn	₦8.77bn	25%	4.1 yr
Urban	11,513	6,163	₦22.8bn	₦22.5bn	67%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,756	3,127	₦6.29bn	₦6.29bn	27%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	2,942	845	₦3.41bn	₦2.99bn	25%	4.1 yr
Rural	513	346	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	75%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	15,792	6,604	₦33.2bn	₦32.6bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	8,857	3,524	₦2.69bn	₦2.69bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	8,192	2,954	₦348m	₦348m	9%	9.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,306	1,271	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	467	43	₦32.6m	₦32.6m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	338	265	₦1.54bn	₦1.54bn	57%	1.9 yr
Duplex	267	82	₦39.3m	₦39.3m	27%	4.1 yr
Apartment	248	169	₦101m	₦101m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	163	133	₦895m	₦895m	85%	1.1 yr
School	121	97	₦327m	₦327m	83%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	96	82	₦1.28bn	₦1.25bn	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	77	66	₦612m	₦606m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	39,219	15,495	₦43.2bn	₦42.5bn
Farmyard	3	1	₦371k	₦371k
Farmland	1	1	₦1.59m	₦1.59m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	38,545	14,969	₦39bn	₦38.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	603	464	₦3.82bn	₦3.79bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	75	64	₦325m	₦325m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	17,432	7,515	₦34bn	₦33.4bn
0.0	8,177	2,957	₦349m	₦349m
2.0	7,786	2,977	₦6.21bn	₦6.14bn
4.0	4,326	1,479	₦2.22bn	₦2.22bn
1.0	1,498	568	₦390m	₦388m
5.0	2	0	₦5.24m	₦5.24m
6.0	2	1	₦12.5m	₦12.5m