Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Boki, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Boki has 36,921 buildings with a viable rooftop and 798 MWp of roof capacity. 42% run a generator, and together they spend ₦49.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

36,921

Usable roof area

3.56 km²

798 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦49.6bn/yr

45.9 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Boki

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦49.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦48.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.51tn

NPV₦400bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy28.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity158 MWp

Capex₦164bn

Year-one energy value₦156bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.4tn

NPV₦1.26tn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Boki's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 158 MWp
Capital cost: ₦164bn
Year 1 savings: ₦156bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.26tn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Boki pays back quickly

Of the 36,607 buildings in Boki with a modelled payback, 76.9% pay back inside five years and 42.2% inside three.

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How much of Boki's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Boki consume 59.8 GWh/yr but want 88.2 GWh/yr. The 32% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Boki

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Boki actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 36,607 buildings with a modelled result out of 36,921 in Boki. 30,062 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years15,442 (42%)

Under 5 years28,168 (77%)

Under 7 years30,051 (82%)

Under 10 years32,086 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%31,426 (85%)

Above 15%30,062 (81%)

Above 20%28,965 (78%)

Above 25%25,971 (70%)

CO₂ avoided

84 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

28.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

361k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Boki.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Boki

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	27,342	12,534	₦39.8bn	₦39.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	9,579	2,876	₦9.72bn	₦9.65bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	34,839	13,583	₦42.4bn	₦41.8bn	25%	4.1 yr
Commercial General	629	546	₦2.17bn	₦2.17bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	520	472	₦3.19bn	₦3.08bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	450	399	₦624m	₦624m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	224	183	₦771m	₦771m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	141	112	₦25.6m	₦25.6m	59%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	56	56	₦305m	₦300m	67%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	39	39	₦41.4m	₦41.4m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	23	20	₦35.8m	₦35.8m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	13,573	5,826	₦22.9bn	₦22.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	8,097	3,157	₦3.68bn	₦3.68bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	7,079	2,924	₦465m	₦463m	9%	9.9 yr
30 50m2	4,605	1,831	₦665m	₦664m	19%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	3,556	1,665	₦21.3bn	₦20.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	11	7	₦554m	₦544m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	11,837	5,436	₦15.2bn	₦15bn	27%	4.1 yr
Rural	10,316	3,894	₦14.9bn	₦14.6bn	25%	4.1 yr
Dense Urban	8,114	4,802	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	69%	1.6 yr
Unclassified	6,654	1,278	₦6.55bn	₦6.39bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	14,148	5,691	₦37bn	₦36.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	12,080	4,711	₦5bn	₦5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,556	3,164	₦385m	₦385m	9%	9.6 yr
Institutional	559	499	₦1.9bn	₦1.9bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial	202	166	₦758m	₦758m	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	195	158	₦670m	₦670m	71%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	177	148	₦60.6m	₦60.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	172	153	₦642m	₦642m	85%	1.1 yr
Worship Center	168	143	₦142m	₦142m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	142	128	₦91.1m	₦91.1m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	109	98	₦1.49bn	₦1.42bn	53%	1.9 yr
School	108	101	₦298m	₦298m	85%	1.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	36,900	15,410	₦49.6bn	₦48.8bn
Farmland	19	0	₦635k	₦635k
Orchard	2	0	₦4.29k	₦4.29k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	35,955	14,572	₦44.8bn	₦44.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Enterprise	726	638	₦3.9bn	₦3.79bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	240	200	₦845m	₦845m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	19,932	9,310	₦43.1bn	₦42.5bn
0.0	8,622	3,190	₦396m	₦396m
2.0	6,418	2,167	₦4.86bn	₦4.82bn
1.0	1,867	669	₦506m	₦504m
4.0	81	73	₦655m	₦655m
5.0	1	1	₦14.8m	₦14.8m