Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Odukpani, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Odukpani has 51,940 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.1 GWp of roof capacity. 30% run a generator, and together they spend ₦58.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

51,940

Usable roof area

4.92 km²

1.1 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦58.9bn/yr

55.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Odukpani

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦58.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦54.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.78tn

NPV₦429bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy36.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity212 MWp

Capex₦210bn

Year-one energy value₦177bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.29tn

NPV₦1.39tn

Median IRR85%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Odukpani's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 212 MWp
Capital cost: ₦210bn
Year 1 savings: ₦177bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.39tn
Median IRR: 85%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Odukpani pays back quickly

Of the 51,158 buildings in Odukpani with a modelled payback, 67.9% pay back inside five years and 28.9% inside three.

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How much of Odukpani's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Odukpani consume 88.9 GWh/yr but want 125 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Odukpani

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Odukpani actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 51,158 buildings with a modelled result out of 51,940 in Odukpani. 39,993 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,786 (29%)

Under 5 years34,750 (68%)

Under 7 years39,944 (78%)

Under 10 years42,902 (84%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,255 (81%)

Above 15%39,993 (77%)

Above 20%36,331 (70%)

Above 25%19,083 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

95.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

27.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

36.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

471k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Odukpani.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Odukpani

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	21,162	6,071	₦35.2bn	₦32.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	10,754	4,293	₦7.67bn	₦7.65bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	10,262	2,351	₦12.1bn	₦10.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	9,762	3,023	₦3.94bn	₦3.86bn	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	47,817	13,608	₦41bn	₦37bn	25%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	1,988	959	₦5.05bn	₦5.05bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,355	639	₦141m	₦141m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	467	342	₦9.9bn	₦9.84bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	201	123	₦211m	₦211m	39%	2.6 yr
Industrial	87	50	₦354m	₦339m	39%	2.6 yr
Filling Station	18	11	₦20.9m	₦20.9m	37%	2.9 yr
Hospitality	5	5	₦2.21bn	₦1.96bn	79%	1.4 yr
Productive Use	2	1	₦554k	₦554k	33%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,794	5,753	₦21.3bn	₦19.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	11,616	2,881	₦3.27bn	₦2.94bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	11,428	3,073	₦414m	₦411m	9%	12.9 yr
30 50m2	7,092	1,823	₦573m	₦551m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	4,923	2,160	₦22.2bn	₦20.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	87	48	₦11.1bn	₦10.9bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	20,840	6,815	₦9.28bn	₦9.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	12,637	3,129	₦14.8bn	₦14.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	9,526	1,137	₦11.2bn	₦9.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,009	2,956	₦10.7bn	₦10.7bn	43%	2.4 yr
Rural	3,928	1,701	₦13bn	₦11.4bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	13,283	4,085	₦4.41bn	₦4.06bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential	13,077	5,119	₦35.2bn	₦31.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	10,657	2,357	₦280m	₦280m	9%	13.6 yr
Residential Formal	5,156	737	₦425m	₦414m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Informal	4,786	1,180	₦641m	₦631m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,357	640	₦142m	₦142m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	862	479	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	741	255	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	643	83	₦24.7m	₦24.7m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	353	245	₦8.48bn	₦8.45bn	49%	2.1 yr
Duplex	206	43	₦18.1m	₦18.1m	25%	4.6 yr
Educational Facility	146	108	₦698m	₦698m	75%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	51,163	15,435	₦51bn	₦47bn
Retail	284	192	₦6.69bn	₦6.65bn
Farmland	245	12	₦602m	₦348m
Industrial	239	99	₦562m	₦562m
Farmyard	9	0	₦50k	₦50k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	49,780	14,609	₦42.8bn	₦38.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,628	750	₦5.92bn	₦5.66bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	532	379	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	15,897	7,265	₦42.1bn	₦38.8bn
2.0	11,949	3,485	₦8.31bn	₦7.52bn
0.0	10,656	2,363	₦282m	₦282m
4.0	8,147	1,407	₦2.97bn	₦2.96bn
1.0	4,429	794	₦760m	₦749m
5.0	701	351	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn
6.0	161	73	₦3.4bn	₦3.14bn