Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Calabar South, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Calabar South has 53,876 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.46 GWp of roof capacity. 18% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,876

Usable roof area

6.48 km²

1.46 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.1bn/yr

18.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.9 yr

Median IRR 21% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Calabar South

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.18tn

NPV₦159bn

Median IRR21%

Median payback4.9 yr

Unlocked energy23.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity105 MWp

Capex₦99.8bn

Year-one energy value₦57.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.66tn

NPV₦413bn

Median IRR61%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Calabar South's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 105 MWp
Capital cost: ₦99.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦57.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦413bn
Median IRR: 61%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Calabar South pays back quickly

Of the 50,887 buildings in Calabar South with a modelled payback, 53.0% pay back inside five years and 14.7% inside three.

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How much of Calabar South's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Calabar South consume 54.7 GWh/yr but want 77.9 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Calabar South

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Calabar South actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 50,887 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,876 in Calabar South. 37,113 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,486 (15%)

Under 5 years26,950 (53%)

Under 7 years36,982 (73%)

Under 10 years43,742 (86%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,935 (80%)

Above 15%37,113 (69%)

Above 20%29,676 (55%)

Above 25%11,165 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

44.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

7.94 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

136k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Calabar South.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Calabar South

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	34,456	5,161	₦14.9bn	₦14.3bn	21%	5.1 yr
C	14,832	3,479	₦4.65bn	₦4.65bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	4,335	1,201	₦2.28bn	₦2.25bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	216	18	₦2.36bn	₦237m	7%	14.6 yr
D	37	0	₦89.2k	₦89.2k	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	51,741	9,325	₦13.9bn	₦11.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
Anchor	693	196	₦6.3bn	₦6.2bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	619	124	₦352m	₦352m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	584	148	₦3.12bn	₦3.01bn	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	77	21	₦216m	₦216m	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	67	23	₦222m	₦222m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	34	7	₦22.9m	₦22.9m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial Retail	33	13	₦17.2m	₦17.2m	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	15	1	₦17.5m	₦17.5m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	11	1	₦9.68m	₦9.68m	33%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦514k	₦514k	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	17,989	3,303	₦5.75bn	₦4.33bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	10,701	1,823	₦1.26bn	₦711m	17%	6.4 yr
Under 30m2	9,766	1,795	₦186m	₦185m	7%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	8,231	1,692	₦9.18bn	₦8.76bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	6,939	1,156	₦422m	₦269m	13%	7.6 yr
Over 1000m2	250	90	₦7.35bn	₦7.22bn	29%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	51,745	9,247	₦18.4bn	₦18.2bn	21%	4.9 yr
Unclassified	1,437	259	₦3.91bn	₦1.75bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	694	353	₦1.82bn	₦1.54bn	37%	2.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	36,164	3,579	₦2.42bn	₦2.42bn	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Formal	4,806	871	₦945m	₦945m	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	3,596	1,921	₦1.38bn	₦677m	45%	2.4 yr
Residential	3,193	1,863	₦8.76bn	₦7.01bn	53%	1.9 yr
Shed	3,000	801	₦86.8m	₦86.8m	19%	5.9 yr
Apartment	786	234	₦236m	₦236m	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	469	135	₦3.11bn	₦3.06bn	29%	3.6 yr
Worship Center	260	50	₦121m	₦121m	33%	3.4 yr
Place Of Worship	240	49	₦79.3m	₦79.3m	33%	3.4 yr
Duplex	188	55	₦37.9m	₦37.9m	25%	4.6 yr
School	187	42	₦190m	₦190m	41%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	177	52	₦200m	₦200m	41%	2.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,769	9,845	₦24.1bn	₦21.4bn
Farmland	62	1	₦3.67m	₦3.67m
Orchard	32	13	₦89.5m	₦89.5m
Retail	13	0	₦343k	₦343k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	52,956	9,601	₦16.8bn	₦14.3bn	21%	4.9 yr
Enterprise	749	218	₦6.41bn	₦6.31bn	39%	2.9 yr
SME High	171	40	₦945m	₦901m	33%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	27,412	3,168	₦9.5bn	₦9.39bn
3.0	15,044	4,050	₦10.9bn	₦10.5bn
2.0	7,383	1,546	₦1.9bn	₦505m
0.0	2,273	760	₦79.7m	₦79.7m
1.0	1,680	319	₦838m	₦139m
5.0	72	14	₦701m	₦664m
6.0	12	2	₦215m	₦215m