Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Calabar Municipal, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Calabar Municipal has 61,694 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.68 GWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦77bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

61,694

Usable roof area

7.45 km²

1.68 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦77bn/yr

66.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Calabar Municipal

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦77bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦74bn

Lifetime cash saved₦3.88tn

NPV₦543bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy69.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity313 MWp

Capex₦275bn

Year-one energy value₦148bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.73tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Calabar Municipal's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 313 MWp
Capital cost: ₦275bn
Year 1 savings: ₦148bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 55%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Calabar Municipal pays back quickly

Of the 60,836 buildings in Calabar Municipal with a modelled payback, 67.7% pay back inside five years and 18.0% inside three.

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How much of Calabar Municipal's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Calabar Municipal consume 193 GWh/yr but want 262 GWh/yr. The 26% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Calabar Municipal

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Calabar Municipal actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 60,836 buildings with a modelled result out of 61,694 in Calabar Municipal. 51,538 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,971 (18%)

Under 5 years41,176 (68%)

Under 7 years51,406 (84%)

Under 10 years56,625 (93%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%56,088 (91%)

Above 15%51,538 (84%)

Above 20%44,490 (72%)

Above 25%21,801 (35%)

CO₂ avoided

142 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

24 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

69.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

121k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Calabar Municipal.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Calabar Municipal

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	36,705	11,487	₦56bn	₦54.4bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	21,149	3,980	₦14.8bn	₦14.7bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	3,754	1,469	₦5.5bn	₦4.29bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	86	40	₦726m	₦726m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	51,936	12,971	₦20bn	₦18.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	4,972	2,024	₦26.3bn	₦25.9bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	2,773	1,234	₦635m	₦635m	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	984	437	₦28bn	₦27.1bn	39%	2.6 yr
Worship	486	118	₦293m	₦293m	33%	3.4 yr
Hospitality	296	92	₦1.28bn	₦1.24bn	33%	3.4 yr
Industrial	131	61	₦295m	₦293m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	42	17	₦49.6m	₦49.5m	33%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	40	8	₦171m	₦170m	33%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	30	12	₦35.4m	₦35.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	4	2	₦2.53m	₦2.53m	29%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	18,049	4,681	₦10.8bn	₦10.5bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	13,254	3,625	₦607m	₦601m	15%	6.4 yr
50 100m2	11,965	3,226	₦2.15bn	₦2.09bn	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	9,638	2,972	₦31.7bn	₦30bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	8,448	2,291	₦662m	₦661m	21%	5.4 yr
Over 1000m2	340	181	₦31.1bn	₦30.2bn	35%	3.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	59,399	16,114	₦67.5bn	₦65.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	1,755	601	₦8.11bn	₦7.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	540	261	₦1.43bn	₦1.43bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	33,727	7,217	₦5.74bn	₦5.69bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	4,522	1,974	₦13bn	₦11.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,458	95	₦196m	₦196m	19%	5.4 yr
Residential Small	4,296	1,786	₦794m	₦785m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	4,129	1,883	₦242m	₦242m	23%	4.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,776	1,239	₦636m	₦636m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	2,224	960	₦14.5bn	₦14.3bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,778	679	₦8.07bn	₦7.96bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	598	11	₦21.3m	₦21.3m	23%	4.6 yr
Institutional	574	235	₦25.3bn	₦24.6bn	31%	3.6 yr
Unknown	343	154	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial	235	87	₦1.46bn	₦1.44bn	33%	3.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	58,409	15,017	₦48.7bn	₦46.4bn
Industrial	3,077	1,923	₦27.6bn	₦26.9bn
Retail	168	0	₦65m	₦65m
Commercial	40	36	₦710m	₦710m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	56,355	14,771	₦25.3bn	₦23.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	4,249	1,720	₦23.5bn	₦23.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	1,090	485	₦28.2bn	₦27.4bn	39%	2.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	25,574	4,983	₦34.3bn	₦33.6bn
3.0	15,871	5,180	₦20.4bn	₦18.7bn
2.0	11,027	3,066	₦1.3bn	₦1.06bn
0.0	3,489	1,652	₦200m	₦200m
1.0	2,556	897	₦182m	₦179m
5.0	2,230	796	₦7.58bn	₦7.5bn
6.0	947	402	₦13.1bn	₦12.7bn