Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Ogoja, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Ogoja has 53,620 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.12 GWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦38.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

53,620

Usable roof area

4.98 km²

1.12 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦38.3bn/yr

37.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ogoja

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦38.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦37.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2tn

NPV₦311bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy30.8 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity148 MWp

Capex₦146bn

Year-one energy value₦129bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.1tn

NPV₦1.03tn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ogoja's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 148 MWp
Capital cost: ₦146bn
Year 1 savings: ₦129bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.03tn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ogoja pays back quickly

Of the 52,329 buildings in Ogoja with a modelled payback, 67.2% pay back inside five years and 32.9% inside three.

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How much of Ogoja's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ogoja consume 57.5 GWh/yr but want 88.3 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ogoja

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ogoja actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 52,329 buildings with a modelled result out of 53,620 in Ogoja. 39,610 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years17,191 (33%)

Under 5 years35,164 (67%)

Under 7 years39,583 (76%)

Under 10 years43,152 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%42,124 (79%)

Above 15%39,610 (74%)

Above 20%36,680 (68%)

Above 25%31,505 (59%)

CO₂ avoided

67.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

30.8 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

258k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ogoja.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ogoja

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	29,287	10,387	₦23.5bn	₦23bn	25%	4.1 yr
D	17,527	6,068	₦13.3bn	₦13.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	6,806	1,050	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	23%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	48,496	13,538	₦24.7bn	₦24.1bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,569	1,948	₦8.68bn	₦8.68bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,405	1,071	₦283m	₦283m	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	580	477	₦3.49bn	₦3.46bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	342	285	₦298m	₦298m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	171	146	₦681m	₦680m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	35	29	₦27m	₦27m	57%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	18	8	₦164m	₦162m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	2	1	₦204k	₦204k	33%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	2	2	₦746k	₦746k	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,686	6,061	₦15.1bn	₦15.1bn	25%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	12,092	3,538	₦2.82bn	₦2.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	11,933	3,524	₦518m	₦517m	7%	13.4 yr
30 50m2	7,610	2,140	₦594m	₦594m	11%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,249	2,210	₦17.6bn	₦17.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	50	32	₦1.63bn	₦1.62bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	18,960	6,100	₦13.7bn	₦13.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	15,742	4,794	₦9.31bn	₦9.29bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	7,576	1,309	₦3.92bn	₦3.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	7,286	4,003	₦7.5bn	₦7.5bn	55%	1.9 yr
Rural	4,056	1,299	₦3.87bn	₦3.87bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	14,289	5,240	₦20.7bn	₦20.2bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	14,117	4,256	₦2.96bn	₦2.89bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	11,804	3,062	₦371m	₦371m	9%	13.4 yr
Residential Formal	4,452	449	₦306m	₦306m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	3,068	416	₦242m	₦242m	21%	4.6 yr
Commercial	1,673	1,218	₦6.06bn	₦6.06bn	59%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,406	1,073	₦281m	₦281m	53%	2.1 yr
Apartment	640	82	₦38.4m	₦38.4m	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	521	435	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	404	353	₦997m	₦997m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	203	169	₦712m	₦712m	83%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	148	124	₦578m	₦577m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	53,620	17,505	₦38.3bn	₦37.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	50,744	15,277	₦27bn	₦26.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	2,126	1,606	₦7.12bn	₦7.12bn	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	750	622	₦4.17bn	₦4.14bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	19,436	8,324	₦26.7bn	₦26.2bn
0.0	11,848	3,095	₦382m	₦382m
2.0	10,289	3,077	₦4.15bn	₦4.07bn
4.0	7,323	1,170	₦4.57bn	₦4.57bn
1.0	3,873	1,323	₦674m	₦668m
5.0	721	443	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn
6.0	130	73	₦629m	₦629m