Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Akamkpa, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Akamkpa has 39,726 buildings with a viable rooftop and 752 MWp of roof capacity. 26% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

39,726

Usable roof area

3.36 km²

752 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.8bn/yr

29 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akamkpa

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.46tn

NPV₦221bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy23.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity120 MWp

Capex₦113bn

Year-one energy value₦91.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.32tn

NPV₦719bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akamkpa's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 120 MWp
Capital cost: ₦113bn
Year 1 savings: ₦91.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦719bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akamkpa pays back quickly

Of the 38,673 buildings in Akamkpa with a modelled payback, 53.0% pay back inside five years and 25.8% inside three.

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How much of Akamkpa's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akamkpa consume 48.5 GWh/yr but want 72 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Akamkpa

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Akamkpa actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 38,673 buildings with a modelled result out of 39,726 in Akamkpa. 25,512 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,967 (26%)

Under 5 years20,497 (53%)

Under 7 years25,472 (66%)

Under 10 years29,339 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,601 (72%)

Above 15%25,512 (64%)

Above 20%22,132 (56%)

Above 25%12,247 (31%)

CO₂ avoided

49.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

178k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akamkpa.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Akamkpa

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	25,373	6,676	₦13.1bn	₦13.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	12,677	2,967	₦10.6bn	₦10.4bn	21%	4.9 yr
C	975	44	₦121m	₦119m	21%	5.1 yr
A	516	370	₦3.69bn	₦3.69bn	37%	3.1 yr
B	185	80	₦278m	₦278m	25%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	35,734	7,388	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
Commercial General	1,684	1,186	₦6.26bn	₦6.26bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	805	536	₦163m	₦163m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	709	409	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	409	346	₦7.45bn	₦7.38bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	313	217	₦279m	₦279m	57%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	30	22	₦37.4m	₦37.4m	59%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	23	17	₦41.9m	₦41.9m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	19	16	₦84.4m	₦84.4m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,968	3,209	₦7.5bn	₦7.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	10,111	2,276	₦396m	₦392m	7%	14.4 yr
50 100m2	9,586	2,009	₦1.42bn	₦1.35bn	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	6,146	1,376	₦419m	₦419m	11%	9.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,834	1,207	₦11.3bn	₦11.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	81	60	₦6.7bn	₦6.7bn	47%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	12,992	3,014	₦9.71bn	₦9.71bn	21%	5.1 yr
Unclassified	9,193	952	₦3.74bn	₦3.73bn	17%	5.9 yr
Rural	8,847	2,165	₦4.96bn	₦4.95bn	19%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	8,694	4,006	₦9.37bn	₦9.24bn	25%	3.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	11,741	2,434	₦9.72bn	₦9.72bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	10,637	1,679	₦955m	₦881m	19%	5.4 yr
Shed	9,909	1,568	₦206m	₦206m	7%	14.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,565	881	₦488m	₦488m	43%	2.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,484	700	₦730m	₦730m	25%	4.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	823	549	₦181m	₦181m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	783	531	₦6.96bn	₦6.96bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	742	672	₦4.61bn	₦4.61bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	523	297	₦920m	₦916m	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	385	149	₦485m	₦485m	33%	3.1 yr
Agricultural	242	37	₦18.9m	₦18.9m	17%	6.1 yr
Duplex	156	89	₦42.9m	₦42.9m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	35,355	8,785	₦20.8bn	₦20.6bn
Industrial	3,843	1,246	₦5.66bn	₦5.66bn
Farmyard	272	99	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn
Orchard	144	7	₦22.6m	₦22.6m
Farmland	112	0	₦668k	₦668k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	37,456	8,542	₦13.9bn	₦13.8bn	21%	4.9 yr
SME High	1,162	849	₦5.23bn	₦5.21bn	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	1,108	746	₦8.64bn	₦8.58bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	12,238	3,583	₦16.4bn	₦16.3bn
0.0	10,120	1,581	₦219m	₦219m
2.0	10,112	2,365	₦2.51bn	₦2.43bn
1.0	4,846	1,078	₦349m	₦349m
4.0	1,971	1,140	₦4.7bn	₦4.7bn
5.0	315	267	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn
6.0	124	123	₦2.23bn	₦2.23bn