Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Biase, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Biase has 26,156 buildings with a viable rooftop and 590 MWp of roof capacity. 62% run a generator, and together they spend ₦159bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

26,156

Usable roof area

2.63 km²

590 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦159bn/yr

149 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 59% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Biase

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦159bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦116bn

Lifetime cash saved₦5.57tn

NPV₦914bn

Median IRR59%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy26.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity181 MWp

Capex₦185bn

Year-one energy value₦168bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.72tn

NPV₦1.32tn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Biase's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 181 MWp
Capital cost: ₦185bn
Year 1 savings: ₦168bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.32tn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Biase pays back quickly

Of the 25,877 buildings in Biase with a modelled payback, 80.8% pay back inside five years and 63.1% inside three.

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How much of Biase's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Biase consume 181 GWh/yr but want 208 GWh/yr. The 13% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Biase

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Biase actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 25,877 buildings with a modelled result out of 26,156 in Biase. 22,388 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years16,337 (63%)

Under 5 years20,915 (81%)

Under 7 years22,377 (86%)

Under 10 years23,579 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,279 (89%)

Above 15%22,388 (86%)

Above 20%21,436 (82%)

Above 25%18,507 (71%)

CO₂ avoided

181 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

67.8 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

26.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

312k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Biase.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Biase

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	19,390	12,040	₦120bn	₦89.5bn	59%	1.9 yr
D	6,766	4,298	₦39.1bn	₦26.5bn	59%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	24,528	14,795	₦137bn	₦98.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	598	573	₦5.3bn	₦5.25bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	401	360	₦2.5bn	₦2.44bn	69%	1.6 yr
Anchor	373	362	₦13.9bn	₦9.51bn	75%	1.4 yr
Worship	158	152	₦404m	₦404m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	90	88	₦63.7m	₦63.7m	61%	1.9 yr
Filling Station	8	8	₦13.5m	₦13.5m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,703	5,748	₦60.3bn	₦45.9bn	61%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	6,764	4,136	₦12.6bn	₦11.1bn	59%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	4,172	2,344	₦870m	₦830m	55%	1.9 yr
30 50m2	3,700	2,150	₦2.36bn	₦1.77bn	57%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,660	1,833	₦63.8bn	₦44.7bn	63%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	157	127	₦19.4bn	₦11.7bn	73%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Rural	10,027	7,527	₦91.8bn	₦68.7bn	65%	1.6 yr
Urban	7,128	3,688	₦12bn	₦11.3bn	51%	2.1 yr
Unclassified	5,479	2,332	₦41.8bn	₦23.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	3,522	2,791	₦13.7bn	₦12.7bn	57%	1.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	7,807	5,636	₦24.6bn	₦22.3bn	59%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	6,769	3,917	₦16.1bn	₦13.7bn	71%	1.6 yr
Residential	5,557	3,191	₦96.1bn	₦61.9bn	71%	1.4 yr
Shed	4,287	1,989	₦334m	₦334m	19%	5.4 yr
Institutional	373	346	₦11.2bn	₦7.61bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	317	284	₦2.08bn	₦2.07bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial	209	207	₦2.29bn	₦2.28bn	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	116	112	₦974m	₦974m	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	110	110	₦1.39bn	₦1.39bn	59%	1.9 yr
Agricultural	108	62	₦41.4m	₦41.4m	65%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	90	88	₦63.7m	₦63.7m	61%	1.9 yr
School	78	76	₦422m	₦422m	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	26,107	16,327	₦159bn	₦116bn
Orchard	49	11	₦4.17m	₦4.17m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	25,054	15,290	₦139bn	₦100bn	59%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	774	722	₦16.4bn	₦12bn	71%	1.4 yr
SME High	328	326	₦3.7bn	₦3.68bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	9,956	6,795	₦118bn	₦82.3bn
2.0	7,901	5,036	₦19.6bn	₦15.4bn
0.0	4,242	1,930	₦349m	₦349m
4.0	2,180	1,522	₦17.8bn	₦15.5bn
1.0	1,807	985	₦2.26bn	₦1.48bn
5.0	51	51	₦579m	₦528m
6.0	19	19	₦468m	₦468m