Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Obanliku, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Obanliku has 28,347 buildings with a viable rooftop and 536 MWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

28,347

Usable roof area

2.39 km²

536 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.9bn/yr

11.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obanliku

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦622bn

NPV₦98.1bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy8.98 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity49.6 MWp

Capex₦51.4bn

Year-one energy value₦48.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.33tn

NPV₦396bn

Median IRR105%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Obanliku's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 49.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦51.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦48.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦396bn
Median IRR: 105%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obanliku pays back quickly

Of the 27,310 buildings in Obanliku with a modelled payback, 52.7% pay back inside five years and 23.9% inside three.

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How much of Obanliku's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obanliku consume 16.2 GWh/yr but want 25.2 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obanliku

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obanliku actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 27,310 buildings with a modelled result out of 28,347 in Obanliku. 17,507 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,531 (24%)

Under 5 years14,391 (53%)

Under 7 years17,492 (64%)

Under 10 years20,047 (73%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,465 (69%)

Above 15%17,507 (62%)

Above 20%15,270 (54%)

Above 25%12,572 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

20.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.33 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

8.98 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

124k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obanliku.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Obanliku

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	21,259	4,381	₦7.55bn	₦7.52bn	21%	4.9 yr
D	7,065	2,118	₦4.36bn	₦4.36bn	25%	4.1 yr
C	23	0	₦279k	₦279k	1%	20.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	27,562	5,853	₦8.39bn	₦8.39bn	21%	4.9 yr
Anchor	369	313	₦2.31bn	₦2.28bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	306	244	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	47	38	₦7.49m	₦7.49m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	45	36	₦127m	₦127m	73%	1.4 yr
Filling Station	11	9	₦8.16m	₦8.16m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	6	6	₦7.02m	₦7.02m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	1	0	₦55.2k	₦55.2k	33%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,193	2,606	₦5.24bn	₦5.24bn	27%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	7,630	1,124	₦157m	₦157m	5%	16.1 yr
50 100m2	5,926	1,252	₦705m	₦705m	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	3,523	729	₦165m	₦165m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	2,055	780	₦5.04bn	₦5.01bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	20	8	₦606m	₦606m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	12,412	2,995	₦5.32bn	₦5.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,007	2,655	₦3.62bn	₦3.62bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	6,442	446	₦2.28bn	₦2.28bn	9%	7.6 yr
Rural	911	233	₦484m	₦484m	25%	4.4 yr
Urban Centre	575	170	₦201m	₦201m	27%	4.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,637	2,603	₦7.33bn	₦7.33bn	27%	4.1 yr
Shed	9,096	1,317	₦159m	₦159m	7%	15.1 yr
Residential Small	8,822	1,931	₦898m	₦898m	21%	5.1 yr
Institutional	227	192	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	59%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	112	93	₦528m	₦528m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial	88	62	₦348m	₦348m	65%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	76	66	₦745m	₦717m	53%	1.9 yr
School	72	58	₦161m	₦161m	83%	1.1 yr
Clinic	66	55	₦404m	₦404m	53%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	47	38	₦7.49m	₦7.49m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	40	31	₦102m	₦102m	73%	1.4 yr
Public Building	12	11	₦37.9m	₦37.9m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	28,344	6,497	₦11.9bn	₦11.9bn
Farmland	3	2	₦1.01m	₦1.01m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	27,833	6,079	₦9.12bn	₦9.12bn	21%	4.9 yr
Enterprise	414	349	₦2.44bn	₦2.41bn	59%	1.9 yr
SME High	100	71	₦357m	₦357m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,883	3,402	₦9.59bn	₦9.57bn
0.0	9,103	1,320	₦160m	₦160m
2.0	6,215	1,492	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn
1.0	2,108	256	₦132m	₦132m
4.0	36	27	₦223m	₦223m
5.0	2	2	₦58.9m	₦58.9m