Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Etung, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Etung has 15,098 buildings with a viable rooftop and 295 MWp of roof capacity. 47% run a generator, and together they spend ₦35.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

15,098

Usable roof area

1.31 km²

295 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦35.8bn/yr

35.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.1 yr

Median IRR 27% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Etung

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦35.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.68tn

NPV₦270bn

Median IRR27%

Median payback4.1 yr

Unlocked energy15.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity84.5 MWp

Capex₦82.8bn

Year-one energy value₦75.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.54tn

NPV₦602bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Etung's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 84.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦82.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦75.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦602bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Etung pays back quickly

Of the 14,970 buildings in Etung with a modelled payback, 72.1% pay back inside five years and 47.2% inside three.

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How much of Etung's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Etung consume 46 GWh/yr but want 61.7 GWh/yr. The 25% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Etung

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Etung actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 14,970 buildings with a modelled result out of 15,098 in Etung. 11,589 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years7,071 (47%)

Under 5 years10,794 (72%)

Under 7 years11,586 (77%)

Under 10 years12,356 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%12,128 (80%)

Above 15%11,589 (77%)

Above 20%11,047 (73%)

Above 25%10,226 (68%)

CO₂ avoided

54.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

18.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

146k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Etung.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Etung

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	11,515	5,308	₦26.4bn	₦24.4bn	27%	4.1 yr
D	3,583	1,778	₦9.38bn	₦8.89bn	35%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	12,866	5,108	₦25.7bn	₦23.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	1,043	928	₦7.42bn	₦7bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	634	579	₦195m	₦195m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	197	181	₦1.76bn	₦1.66bn	65%	1.6 yr
Worship	186	159	₦358m	₦358m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	157	120	₦336m	₦336m	65%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	15	11	₦17m	₦17m	61%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	4,086	2,128	₦13.5bn	₦12.6bn	47%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	3,941	1,714	₦438m	₦435m	13%	7.1 yr
50 100m2	3,324	1,416	₦2.48bn	₦2.44bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	2,302	956	₦529m	₦524m	23%	4.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,430	861	₦17bn	₦15.8bn	61%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	15	11	₦1.83bn	₦1.49bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	6,815	3,542	₦14.2bn	₦14.1bn	51%	2.1 yr
Unclassified	4,730	1,315	₦8.58bn	₦6.87bn	25%	4.4 yr
Rural	2,464	1,630	₦10.5bn	₦9.85bn	69%	1.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,089	599	₦2.51bn	₦2.47bn	69%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,751	2,021	₦22.2bn	₦20.3bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Small	4,354	2,006	₦3.31bn	₦3.27bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	3,738	1,078	₦150m	₦150m	9%	13.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	634	579	₦195m	₦195m	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	581	532	₦4.19bn	₦3.93bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	295	260	₦2.49bn	₦2.32bn	53%	1.9 yr
Institutional	259	214	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	106	77	₦233m	₦233m	67%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	71	62	₦83.2m	₦83.2m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	55	52	₦333m	₦333m	83%	1.1 yr
Place Of Worship	53	45	₦31.4m	₦31.4m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	49	43	₦607m	₦579m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	15,038	7,081	₦35.8bn	₦33.3bn
Farmland	36	4	₦11.2m	₦11.2m
Orchard	24	1	₦5.7m	₦5.7m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	13,854	5,983	₦27bn	₦25bn	25%	4.1 yr
SME High	891	803	₦6.69bn	₦6.27bn	57%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	353	300	₦2.09bn	₦1.99bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	5,777	3,152	₦25.9bn	₦24bn
0.0	3,764	1,086	₦153m	₦153m
2.0	3,489	1,668	₦3.08bn	₦2.85bn
1.0	1,389	548	₦316m	₦316m
5.0	401	375	₦2.27bn	₦2.2bn
4.0	179	165	₦1.19bn	₦1.18bn
6.0	99	92	₦2.9bn	₦2.57bn