Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Bakassi, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Bakassi has 6,439 buildings with a viable rooftop and 138 MWp of roof capacity. 20% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.44bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

6,439

Usable roof area

615,447 m²

138 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.44bn/yr

6.95 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Bakassi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.44bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.82bn

Lifetime cash saved₦405bn

NPV₦61.7bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy4.75 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity34.5 MWp

Capex₦36.6bn

Year-one energy value₦33.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.56tn

NPV₦264bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Bakassi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 34.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦36.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦33.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦264bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Bakassi pays back quickly

Of the 6,408 buildings in Bakassi with a modelled payback, 72.1% pay back inside five years and 20.4% inside three.

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How much of Bakassi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Bakassi consume 11.2 GWh/yr but want 15.9 GWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Bakassi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Bakassi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 6,408 buildings with a modelled result out of 6,439 in Bakassi. 4,865 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,306 (20%)

Under 5 years4,619 (72%)

Under 7 years4,863 (76%)

Under 10 years5,112 (80%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%5,016 (78%)

Above 15%4,865 (76%)

Above 20%4,737 (74%)

Above 25%1,451 (23%)

CO₂ avoided

14 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

4.75 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

130k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Bakassi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Bakassi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	4,097	678	₦6.13bn	₦5.51bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	2,342	628	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	6,351	1,234	₦8.14bn	₦7.51bn	25%	4.6 yr
Anchor	50	40	₦189m	₦189m	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial General	30	25	₦105m	₦105m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	3	2	₦9.25m	₦9.25m	69%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	2	2	₦2.67m	₦2.67m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦1.77m	₦1.77m	49%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦346k	₦346k	53%	2.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	2,328	520	₦3.28bn	₦3.14bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	1,626	275	₦559m	₦557m	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	987	144	₦26.3m	₦26.3m	7%	15.1 yr
30 50m2	964	162	₦102m	₦99.3m	9%	9.9 yr
250 1000m2	526	201	₦4.29bn	₦3.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	8	4	₦184m	₦184m	25%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	3,857	1,014	₦7.62bn	₦7bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	1,536	84	₦402m	₦402m	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,046	208	₦419m	₦419m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,161	427	₦6.18bn	₦5.56bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	2,031	280	₦588m	₦582m	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	1,444	145	₦22.8m	₦22.8m	7%	14.6 yr
Residential Formal	576	294	₦1.12bn	₦1.12bn	53%	2.1 yr
Apartment	105	70	₦186m	₦186m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	35	30	₦169m	₦169m	55%	1.9 yr
Duplex	33	18	₦35.1m	₦35.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	14	8	₦46.8m	₦46.8m	47%	2.1 yr
Clinic	10	6	₦8.18m	₦8.18m	47%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	8	8	₦27.8m	₦27.8m	83%	1.4 yr
Public Building	4	4	₦8.7m	₦8.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Government	4	4	₦6.57m	₦6.57m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	6,439	1,306	₦8.44bn	₦7.82bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	6,382	1,260	₦8.24bn	₦7.61bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	53	42	₦198m	₦198m	53%	2.1 yr
SME High	4	4	₦4.37m	₦4.37m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	2,393	543	₦6.16bn	₦5.53bn
0.0	1,445	145	₦22.8m	₦22.8m
2.0	1,437	211	₦831m	₦829m
4.0	685	376	₦1.34bn	₦1.34bn
1.0	479	31	₦91.2m	₦87.3m