Cross River State

Rooftop solar in Abi, Cross River: what the roofs are worth

Abi has 15,480 buildings with a viable rooftop and 366 MWp of roof capacity. 70% run a generator, and together they spend ₦58.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

15,480

Usable roof area

1.63 km²

366 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦58.7bn/yr

54.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.4 yr

Median IRR 71% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦58.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦53.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.65tn

NPV₦427bn

Median IRR71%

Median payback1.4 yr

Unlocked energy15 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity84.3 MWp

Capex₦87.2bn

Year-one energy value₦82.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.87tn

NPV₦661bn

Median IRR101%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Abi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 84.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦87.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦661bn
Median IRR: 101%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abi pays back quickly

Of the 15,442 buildings in Abi with a modelled payback, 87.5% pay back inside five years and 69.8% inside three.

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How much of Abi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abi consume 63.8 GWh/yr but want 78.8 GWh/yr. The 19% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 15,442 buildings with a modelled result out of 15,480 in Abi. 14,215 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,778 (70%)

Under 5 years13,509 (87%)

Under 7 years14,208 (92%)

Under 10 years14,858 (96%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%14,731 (95%)

Above 15%14,215 (92%)

Above 20%13,715 (89%)

Above 25%12,901 (83%)

CO₂ avoided

84.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

31.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

139k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	12,542	8,594	₦40.9bn	₦37.9bn	71%	1.6 yr
D	2,938	2,191	₦17.8bn	₦15.4bn	73%	1.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	14,763	10,084	₦52.2bn	₦47.2bn	71%	1.4 yr
Anchor	262	258	₦3.13bn	₦2.86bn	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	204	201	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	59%	1.9 yr
Worship	159	153	₦467m	₦467m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	79	78	₦927m	₦909m	73%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	10	8	₦2.18m	₦2.18m	61%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	3	3	₦35.5m	₦35.5m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,328	3,817	₦23.9bn	₦21.3bn	73%	1.4 yr
50 100m2	3,784	2,543	₦4.89bn	₦4.77bn	71%	1.4 yr
Under 30m2	2,607	1,708	₦525m	₦516m	69%	1.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,912	1,481	₦27.3bn	₦24.9bn	73%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	1,834	1,222	₦777m	₦770m	69%	1.6 yr
Over 1000m2	15	14	₦1.25bn	₦1.07bn	77%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	9,490	6,593	₦27bn	₦26.1bn	71%	1.6 yr
Urban	3,975	2,817	₦19.7bn	₦17.2bn	71%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	1,215	633	₦6.56bn	₦5.15bn	59%	1.9 yr
Urban Centre	437	416	₦3.88bn	₦3.34bn	71%	1.4 yr
Rural	363	326	₦1.51bn	₦1.5bn	73%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	5,781	4,437	₦7.9bn	₦7.74bn	71%	1.4 yr
Residential	4,531	3,469	₦42.7bn	₦37.8bn	73%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,432	944	₦1.28bn	₦1.28bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	1,629	1,039	₦177m	₦177m	69%	1.6 yr
Apartment	325	158	₦122m	₦122m	25%	4.1 yr
Institutional	235	231	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	69	68	₦548m	₦548m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	53	51	₦111m	₦111m	67%	1.6 yr
Duplex	53	29	₦27.6m	₦27.6m	53%	2.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	52	51	₦1.27bn	₦1.04bn	57%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	52	50	₦63.1m	₦63.1m	65%	1.6 yr
School	51	50	₦253m	₦253m	81%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	15,479	10,785	₦58.7bn	₦53.3bn
Farmland	1	0	₦138k	₦138k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	15,101	10,411	₦53.7bn	₦48.7bn	71%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	341	336	₦4.06bn	₦3.77bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	38	38	₦869m	₦864m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,605	6,781	₦50.3bn	₦46.4bn
4.0	2,745	1,162	₦2.58bn	₦2.58bn
2.0	2,131	1,559	₦4.63bn	₦3.33bn
0.0	1,642	1,048	₦183m	₦183m
1.0	346	224	₦344m	₦289m
5.0	10	10	₦537m	₦523m
6.0	1	1	₦40.8m	₦40.8m