Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Akwa Ibom State: buildings, spend and payback

978,310 buildings in Akwa Ibom State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦1.01tn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 38% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

978,310

Usable roof area

110 km²

24.7 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦1.01tn/yr

900 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Akwa Ibom

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦1.01tn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦896bn

Lifetime cash saved₦46.2tn

NPV₦7.04tn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy652 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity3.31 GWp

Capex₦3.3tn

Year-one energy value₦2.59tn

Lifetime energy value₦122tn

NPV₦20.2tn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Akwa Ibom State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 3.31 GWp
Capital cost: ₦3.3tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.59tn/yr
NPV: ₦20.2tn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Akwa Ibom State pays back quickly

Of the 969,178 buildings in Akwa Ibom State with a modelled payback, 70.2% pay back inside five years and 35.5% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

70.2%

Payback under 3 years

35.5%

IRR above 20%

73.7%

Under 3 years · 36%3 – 5 years · 35%5 – 7 years · 13%7 – 10 years · 7%Over 10 years · 10%

Coverage: 99% of buildings in Akwa Ibom State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Akwa Ibom State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Akwa Ibom State consume 1.49 TWh/yr but want 2.14 TWh/yr. The 30% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 70%Suppressed · 30%

Energy wanted

2.14 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

1.49 TWh/yr

Unmet demand

652 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Akwa Ibom State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 969,178 buildings with a modelled result out of 978,310 in Akwa Ibom State. 807,261 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years344,305 (36%)

Under 5 years680,591 (70%)

Under 7 years805,706 (83%)

Under 10 years870,197 (90%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%856,956 (88%)

Above 15%807,261 (83%)

Above 20%721,267 (74%)

Above 25%389,800 (40%)

Electricity billing bands in Akwa Ibom State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Akwa Ibom State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	398,455	162,763	₦417bn	₦402bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	257,944	119,785	₦373bn	₦284bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	163,292	36,591	₦61.2bn	₦60.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	118,316	46,936	₦126bn	₦115bn	25%	4.6 yr
A	40,303	9,086	₦35.6bn	₦34.9bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	931,921	346,906	₦791bn	₦680bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	21,009	11,079	₦93.4bn	₦93bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	10,446	8,475	₦18.6bn	₦18.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	7,680	3,370	₦1.47bn	₦1.47bn	33%	3.4 yr
Anchor	5,605	4,392	₦102bn	₦97.1bn	65%	1.6 yr
Industrial	866	691	₦3.05bn	₦3.02bn	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	498	144	₦2.11bn	₦2.06bn	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	133	61	₦108m	₦108m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	116	30	₦307m	₦306m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	23	7	₦14.1m	₦14.1m	33%	3.4 yr
Automotive	13	6	₦12.2m	₦12.2m	29%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	359,615	138,391	₦364bn	₦319bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	205,227	73,700	₦58bn	₦48.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	162,371	59,955	₦7.17bn	₦7bn	11%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	129,877	58,695	₦484bn	₦429bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	119,894	43,631	₦12bn	₦10.6bn	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	1,326	789	₦86.7bn	₦82.1bn	45%	2.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	435,316	149,397	₦341bn	₦268bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	286,135	114,695	₦331bn	₦316bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	126,420	36,574	₦157bn	₦133bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	120,039	69,990	₦161bn	₦159bn	55%	1.9 yr
Rural	10,400	4,505	₦21.6bn	₦20.6bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	302,601	130,374	₦652bn	₦563bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	262,482	106,168	₦83.9bn	₦69.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	162,624	58,271	₦6.43bn	₦6.43bn	11%	9.1 yr
Residential Formal	149,612	39,811	₦26.1bn	₦26bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	53,474	11,578	₦21.2bn	₦13.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	8,320	3,777	₦31.6bn	₦31.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	7,734	3,418	₦1.49bn	₦1.49bn	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	6,714	5,682	₦87.9bn	₦86.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	6,140	3,060	₦31.9bn	₦31.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	3,940	3,119	₦3.53bn	₦3.53bn	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	3,276	2,585	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	2,148	1,778	₦12.4bn	₦12.4bn	79%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	976,239	374,251	₦975bn	₦860bn
Industrial	1,504	739	₦37.1bn	₦35.6bn
Retail	401	115	₦266m	₦266m
Farmland	88	3	₦10.6m	₦10.6m
Commercial	78	53	₦258m	₦258m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	957,090	363,227	₦843bn	₦732bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	14,939	6,958	₦64.8bn	₦64.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	6,281	4,976	₦105bn	₦99.6bn	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	331,813	149,149	₦746bn	₦651bn
2.0	292,712	109,459	₦121bn	₦107bn
0.0	162,260	58,249	₦6.41bn	₦6.41bn
4.0	129,945	36,540	₦100bn	₦97bn
1.0	54,081	20,094	₦11.1bn	₦8.29bn
5.0	5,809	1,257	₦17bn	₦16.9bn
6.0	1,690	413	₦9.89bn	₦9.87bn