Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Abak, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Abak has 46,823 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.15 GWp of roof capacity. 44% run a generator, and together they spend ₦27.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

46,823

Usable roof area

5.09 km²

1.15 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦27.7bn/yr

26.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Abak

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦27.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦27.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.45tn

NPV₦219bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy23.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity112 MWp

Capex₦110bn

Year-one energy value₦87.4bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.14tn

NPV₦686bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Abak's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 112 MWp
Capital cost: ₦110bn
Year 1 savings: ₦87.4bn/yr
NPV: ₦686bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Abak pays back quickly

Of the 46,628 buildings in Abak with a modelled payback, 67.1% pay back inside five years and 38.8% inside three.

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How much of Abak's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Abak consume 44.5 GWh/yr but want 67.7 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Abak

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Abak actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 46,628 buildings with a modelled result out of 46,823 in Abak. 38,334 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,084 (39%)

Under 5 years31,290 (67%)

Under 7 years38,239 (82%)

Under 10 years41,597 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%40,885 (87%)

Above 15%38,334 (82%)

Above 20%33,398 (71%)

Above 25%20,075 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

50.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

13.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

176k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Abak.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Abak

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,689	7,787	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	16,045	7,782	₦8.63bn	₦8.48bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	7,089	4,825	₦6.35bn	₦6.34bn	35%	3.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	45,105	18,909	₦17.4bn	₦17.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	822	722	₦5.8bn	₦5.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	291	239	₦68.2m	₦68.2m	43%	2.4 yr
Worship	285	249	₦479m	₦479m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	260	231	₦3.91bn	₦3.76bn	73%	1.4 yr
Industrial	46	37	₦88.6m	₦88.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	11	4	₦38m	₦38m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦1.88m	₦1.88m	59%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦252k	₦252k	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	16,224	6,581	₦7.49bn	₦7.49bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	9,892	3,765	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	23%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	8,526	3,925	₦314m	₦314m	15%	6.9 yr
250 1000m2	6,139	3,576	₦15.2bn	₦15bn	41%	2.6 yr
30 50m2	5,975	2,496	₦343m	₦343m	17%	6.4 yr
Over 1000m2	67	51	₦3.27bn	₦3.24bn	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	23,634	13,787	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn	35%	3.1 yr
Urban	10,941	3,043	₦4.89bn	₦4.89bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,702	2,642	₦5.37bn	₦5.24bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	5,546	922	₦1.32bn	₦1.32bn	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	14,358	5,394	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	13,511	4,676	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	21%	5.1 yr
Shed	8,769	2,836	₦290m	₦290m	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Formal	6,433	4,586	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,034	1,417	₦267m	₦267m	29%	3.6 yr
Commercial	310	300	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	47%	2.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	292	240	₦68.5m	₦68.5m	43%	2.4 yr
Institutional	259	231	₦3.17bn	₦3.17bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	239	190	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	39%	2.6 yr
Educational Facility	109	97	₦694m	₦694m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	106	91	₦101m	₦101m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	89	79	₦59.5m	₦59.5m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	46,823	20,394	₦27.7bn	₦27.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,965	19,635	₦19.5bn	₦19.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	554	493	₦4.2bn	₦4.2bn	47%	2.4 yr
Enterprise	304	266	₦4bn	₦3.84bn	71%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	15,136	6,887	₦18.1bn	₦17.9bn
2.0	15,097	5,700	₦2.19bn	₦2.19bn
0.0	8,767	2,838	₦290m	₦290m
4.0	4,979	3,551	₦4.27bn	₦4.26bn
1.0	2,509	1,120	₦182m	₦181m
5.0	243	210	₦1.37bn	₦1.37bn
6.0	92	88	₦1.31bn	₦1.31bn