Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Obot Akara, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Obot Akara has 31,917 buildings with a viable rooftop and 666 MWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

31,917

Usable roof area

2.97 km²

666 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.9bn/yr

19.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Obot Akara

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.06tn

NPV₦166bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy16.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity102 MWp

Capex₦107bn

Year-one energy value₦97.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.62tn

NPV₦780bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Obot Akara's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 102 MWp
Capital cost: ₦107bn
Year 1 savings: ₦97.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦780bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Obot Akara pays back quickly

Of the 31,886 buildings in Obot Akara with a modelled payback, 67.1% pay back inside five years and 26.6% inside three.

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How much of Obot Akara's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Obot Akara consume 27.5 GWh/yr but want 44.1 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Obot Akara

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Obot Akara actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 31,886 buildings with a modelled result out of 31,917 in Obot Akara. 24,731 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,484 (27%)

Under 5 years21,405 (67%)

Under 7 years24,712 (78%)

Under 10 years26,406 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%25,732 (81%)

Above 15%24,731 (77%)

Above 20%22,920 (72%)

Above 25%8,932 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

37.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

262k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Obot Akara.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Obot Akara

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	23,882	6,530	₦16.4bn	₦16.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
D	8,011	1,940	₦4.47bn	₦4.33bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	24	1	₦6.06m	₦6.06m	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	31,145	7,836	₦17.5bn	₦17.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Worship	335	265	₦523m	₦523m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	208	184	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	79%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	184	153	₦990m	₦990m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	43	31	₦74.4m	₦73.5m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦166k	₦166k	59%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦5.55m	₦5.55m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,212	3,162	₦8.98bn	₦8.59bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	8,254	1,876	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	5,757	1,396	₦162m	₦161m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	4,171	972	₦232m	₦231m	11%	9.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,497	1,050	₦9.4bn	₦9.38bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	26	15	₦737m	₦737m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	18,896	4,824	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,187	1,672	₦3.67bn	₦3.67bn	25%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	4,067	585	₦2.17bn	₦1.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	2,767	1,390	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	45%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	12,001	2,871	₦2.04bn	₦2.04bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	10,958	3,207	₦15.3bn	₦14.9bn	25%	4.4 yr
Shed	8,186	1,758	₦177m	₦177m	9%	13.6 yr
Institutional	261	212	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	121	94	₦119m	₦119m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	102	84	₦51.8m	₦51.8m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	90	80	₦714m	₦714m	83%	1.4 yr
School	54	48	₦230m	₦230m	81%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	40	28	₦68.9m	₦68m	67%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	35	31	₦599m	₦598m	53%	2.1 yr
Market	30	23	₦25.5m	₦25.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Clinic	24	20	₦120m	₦120m	53%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	31,917	8,471	₦20.9bn	₦20.5bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	31,664	8,254	₦19bn	₦18.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	248	212	₦1.84bn	₦1.84bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	5	5	₦76.6m	₦76.6m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	12,760	3,209	₦4.91bn	₦4.57bn
3.0	8,318	2,976	₦15.4bn	₦15.4bn
0.0	8,190	1,761	₦178m	₦178m
1.0	2,644	520	₦310m	₦310m
4.0	5	5	₦75.8m	₦75.8m