Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Ikono, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Ikono has 29,699 buildings with a viable rooftop and 669 MWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

29,699

Usable roof area

2.98 km²

669 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.5bn/yr

11.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ikono

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦595bn

NPV₦92.3bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy11 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity64.3 MWp

Capex₦64.6bn

Year-one energy value₦56.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.66tn

NPV₦447bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ikono's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 64.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦64.6bn
Year 1 savings: ₦56.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦447bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ikono pays back quickly

Of the 29,503 buildings in Ikono with a modelled payback, 57.0% pay back inside five years and 27.3% inside three.

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How much of Ikono's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ikono consume 17.7 GWh/yr but want 28.7 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ikono

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ikono actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 29,503 buildings with a modelled result out of 29,699 in Ikono. 21,745 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,057 (27%)

Under 5 years16,815 (57%)

Under 7 years21,676 (73%)

Under 10 years24,573 (83%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%23,928 (81%)

Above 15%21,745 (73%)

Above 20%18,304 (62%)

Above 25%8,218 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

21.1 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.68 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

141k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ikono.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ikono

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	19,360	5,504	₦7.38bn	₦7.34bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	10,273	2,544	₦4.14bn	₦4.09bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	66	0	₦6.24m	₦6.24m	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	28,348	6,815	₦7.13bn	₦7.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	601	570	₦3.04bn	₦3.02bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	328	273	₦436m	₦436m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	234	230	₦65.4m	₦65.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	157	136	₦790m	₦790m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	31	24	₦69m	₦68.8m	69%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	11,217	2,987	₦4.9bn	₦4.88bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	7,294	1,763	₦817m	₦787m	19%	5.4 yr
Under 30m2	4,611	1,303	₦138m	₦138m	7%	14.1 yr
30 50m2	3,861	1,050	₦219m	₦197m	11%	9.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,699	939	₦5.08bn	₦5.08bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	17	6	₦370m	₦352m	25%	4.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	15,021	3,786	₦5.19bn	₦5.18bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	6,732	3,143	₦4.78bn	₦4.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	6,060	894	₦1.22bn	₦1.18bn	21%	5.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,886	225	₦336m	₦336m	21%	5.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	11,599	2,880	₦6.07bn	₦6.04bn	25%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	9,990	2,373	₦912m	₦861m	19%	5.4 yr
Shed	6,759	1,562	₦154m	₦154m	9%	13.4 yr
Commercial	372	361	₦2.28bn	₦2.26bn	63%	1.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	234	230	₦65.4m	₦65.4m	59%	1.9 yr
Institutional	214	183	₦706m	₦706m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	119	100	₦117m	₦117m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	100	83	₦51.1m	₦51.1m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	79	79	₦276m	₦276m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	68	59	₦259m	₦259m	81%	1.4 yr
School	48	42	₦204m	₦204m	81%	1.4 yr
Unknown	25	18	₦24.6m	₦24.6m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	29,699	8,048	₦11.5bn	₦11.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	29,068	7,451	₦8.13bn	₦8.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	451	440	₦2.55bn	₦2.54bn	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	180	157	₦843m	₦843m	77%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	12,053	2,914	₦2.6bn	₦2.56bn
3.0	7,474	2,456	₦6.77bn	₦6.77bn
0.0	6,771	1,574	₦155m	₦155m
1.0	3,274	984	₦314m	₦285m
4.0	117	111	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn
5.0	10	9	₦641m	₦623m