Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Itu, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Itu has 40,262 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.05 GWp of roof capacity. 32% run a generator, and together they spend ₦40.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

40,262

Usable roof area

4.66 km²

1.05 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦40.2bn/yr

35.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Itu

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦40.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦37bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.97tn

NPV₦296bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy35.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity153 MWp

Capex₦138bn

Year-one energy value₦97.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.55tn

NPV₦741bn

Median IRR67%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Itu's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 153 MWp
Capital cost: ₦138bn
Year 1 savings: ₦97.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦741bn
Median IRR: 67%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Itu pays back quickly

Of the 39,270 buildings in Itu with a modelled payback, 66.4% pay back inside five years and 28.7% inside three.

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How much of Itu's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Itu consume 72.3 GWh/yr but want 108 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Itu

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Itu actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 39,270 buildings with a modelled result out of 40,262 in Itu. 32,079 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,257 (29%)

Under 5 years26,088 (66%)

Under 7 years31,993 (81%)

Under 10 years35,577 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%35,078 (87%)

Above 15%32,079 (80%)

Above 20%27,828 (69%)

Above 25%15,035 (37%)

CO₂ avoided

71 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

16.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

35.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

143k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Itu.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Itu

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	22,915	4,474	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	5,796	2,963	₦11bn	₦9.62bn	57%	1.9 yr
D	5,783	3,125	₦15.2bn	₦13.6bn	49%	2.1 yr
C	5,768	2,336	₦2.69bn	₦2.67bn	25%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	36,167	11,171	₦23.7bn	₦20.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	2,565	1,049	₦10bn	₦10bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,097	374	₦167m	₦167m	33%	3.4 yr
Worship	226	168	₦466m	₦466m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	151	108	₦5.68bn	₦5.37bn	53%	2.1 yr
Industrial	30	21	₦100m	₦100m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	23	6	₦22.8m	₦22.7m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	2	1	₦2.88m	₦2.88m	33%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦344k	₦344k	33%	3.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	15,335	4,996	₦13.5bn	₦12.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	7,821	2,512	₦2.3bn	₦1.93bn	23%	4.9 yr
Under 30m2	6,784	1,991	₦274m	₦262m	13%	6.6 yr
250 1000m2	5,592	1,954	₦17.8bn	₦16.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	4,662	1,395	₦429m	₦396m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	68	50	₦5.91bn	₦5.81bn	47%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	28,063	6,568	₦13.4bn	₦13.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	5,700	3,704	₦11.8bn	₦11.6bn	65%	1.6 yr
Urban	4,002	1,814	₦10.2bn	₦8.96bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	2,497	812	₦4.76bn	₦3.16bn	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	12,131	1,331	₦610m	₦607m	19%	5.1 yr
Residential	9,595	4,249	₦19.5bn	₦17.2bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	7,561	3,221	₦3.01bn	₦2.53bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	4,111	1,746	₦186m	₦186m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	2,769	624	₦361m	₦361m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,529	437	₦4.67bn	₦4.66bn	33%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,098	374	₦167m	₦167m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial	741	463	₦4.48bn	₦4.48bn	43%	2.6 yr
Unknown	181	66	₦358m	₦358m	29%	3.6 yr
Institutional	147	128	₦4.7bn	₦4.7bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	94	63	₦94m	₦94m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	74	53	₦49.2m	₦49.2m	59%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	40,007	12,663	₦37.2bn	₦34bn
Industrial	255	235	₦3.04bn	₦3.04bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	37,813	11,873	₦25.3bn	₦22.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	2,279	901	₦9.17bn	₦9.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	170	124	₦5.76bn	₦5.45bn	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	11,347	4,651	₦24.2bn	₦21.7bn
4.0	10,806	1,478	₦5.92bn	₦5.82bn
2.0	10,787	3,984	₦4.64bn	₦4.11bn
0.0	4,112	1,747	₦186m	₦186m
1.0	2,000	839	₦341m	₦332m
5.0	877	116	₦2.95bn	₦2.95bn
6.0	333	83	₦1.96bn	₦1.95bn