Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Ibesikpo Asutan, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Ibesikpo Asutan has 54,442 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.48 GWp of roof capacity. 27% run a generator, and together they spend ₦20.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

54,442

Usable roof area

6.57 km²

1.48 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦20.4bn/yr

18.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ibesikpo Asutan

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦20.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦20.3bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.07tn

NPV₦159bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy18.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity92.4 MWp

Capex₦94.5bn

Year-one energy value₦73.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.47tn

NPV₦572bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Ibesikpo Asutan's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 92.4 MWp
Capital cost: ₦94.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦73.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦572bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ibesikpo Asutan pays back quickly

Of the 53,032 buildings in Ibesikpo Asutan with a modelled payback, 60.7% pay back inside five years and 25.0% inside three.

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How much of Ibesikpo Asutan's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ibesikpo Asutan consume 32.3 GWh/yr but want 50.4 GWh/yr. The 36% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ibesikpo Asutan

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ibesikpo Asutan actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 53,032 buildings with a modelled result out of 54,442 in Ibesikpo Asutan. 42,416 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,242 (25%)

Under 5 years32,190 (61%)

Under 7 years42,266 (80%)

Under 10 years47,426 (89%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%46,714 (86%)

Above 15%42,416 (78%)

Above 20%34,987 (64%)

Above 25%14,613 (27%)

CO₂ avoided

37.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.2 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

175k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ibesikpo Asutan.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ibesikpo Asutan

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
B	19,942	2,301	₦1.6bn	₦1.6bn	21%	5.1 yr
D	13,030	5,178	₦7.35bn	₦7.31bn	23%	4.6 yr
E	11,829	5,017	₦9.6bn	₦9.55bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	9,473	2,217	₦1.85bn	₦1.85bn	23%	4.6 yr
A	168	0	₦23.4m	₦23.4m	21%	4.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	53,261	13,805	₦14.6bn	₦14.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	541	391	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	234	178	₦459m	₦459m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	192	148	₦2.09bn	₦2.02bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial Retail	154	146	₦74.6m	₦74.6m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	45	39	₦276m	₦276m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	13	5	₦44m	₦44m	33%	3.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	0	₦432k	₦432k	33%	3.4 yr
Productive Use	1	1	₦4.01m	₦4.01m	55%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	21,479	5,514	₦6.86bn	₦6.83bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	9,437	2,567	₦828m	₦828m	19%	5.9 yr
Under 30m2	9,189	2,481	₦223m	₦222m	9%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	8,545	2,589	₦11.6bn	₦11.6bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	5,756	1,545	₦250m	₦250m	15%	6.9 yr
Over 1000m2	36	17	₦674m	₦635m	31%	3.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	39,241	9,379	₦8.79bn	₦8.78bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban	10,880	4,323	₦9.21bn	₦9.18bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	2,986	550	₦1.77bn	₦1.72bn	21%	5.1 yr
Dense Urban	1,335	461	₦652m	₦652m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	17,044	5,494	₦12.5bn	₦12.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Formal	14,791	1,781	₦625m	₦625m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential Small	12,114	3,891	₦1.13bn	₦1.13bn	21%	5.4 yr
Shed	7,451	2,260	₦224m	₦224m	17%	6.4 yr
Residential Informal	1,861	379	₦115m	₦115m	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	208	193	₦1.67bn	₦1.67bn	51%	2.1 yr
Institutional	198	159	₦1.49bn	₦1.45bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	154	146	₦74.6m	₦74.6m	51%	2.1 yr
Unknown	146	54	₦344m	₦344m	29%	3.6 yr
Worship Center	95	69	₦102m	₦102m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	72	55	₦35.7m	₦35.7m	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	69	56	₦416m	₦416m	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	54,442	14,713	₦20.4bn	₦20.3bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	53,985	14,332	₦16.3bn	₦16.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	233	183	₦2.36bn	₦2.29bn	61%	1.9 yr
SME High	224	198	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn	51%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	20,345	6,299	₦15.6bn	₦15.6bn
2.0	12,924	3,958	₦1.82bn	₦1.8bn
4.0	11,818	1,492	₦2.34bn	₦2.34bn
0.0	7,452	2,261	₦224m	₦224m
1.0	1,895	696	₦167m	₦167m
5.0	8	7	₦237m	₦237m