Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Uruan, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Uruan has 28,995 buildings with a viable rooftop and 850 MWp of roof capacity. 71% run a generator, and together they spend ₦50.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

28,995

Usable roof area

3.77 km²

850 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦50.4bn/yr

52.8 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 57% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Uruan

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦50.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦49.1bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.51tn

NPV₦392bn

Median IRR57%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy27.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity127 MWp

Capex₦120bn

Year-one energy value₦98bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.62tn

NPV₦770bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Uruan's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 127 MWp
Capital cost: ₦120bn
Year 1 savings: ₦98bn/yr
NPV: ₦770bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Uruan pays back quickly

Of the 28,913 buildings in Uruan with a modelled payback, 86.5% pay back inside five years and 70.3% inside three.

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How much of Uruan's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Uruan consume 68.2 GWh/yr but want 95.8 GWh/yr. The 29% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Uruan

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Uruan actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 28,913 buildings with a modelled result out of 28,995 in Uruan. 26,463 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years20,320 (70%)

Under 5 years25,000 (86%)

Under 7 years26,443 (91%)

Under 10 years27,377 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%27,174 (94%)

Above 15%26,463 (91%)

Above 20%25,448 (88%)

Above 25%20,845 (72%)

CO₂ avoided

80.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

25.9 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

27.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

140k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Uruan.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Uruan

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	15,818	12,050	₦31bn	₦29.9bn	67%	1.6 yr
D	8,819	6,235	₦16.8bn	₦16.6bn	57%	1.9 yr
C	4,358	2,437	₦2.57bn	₦2.57bn	33%	3.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	27,269	19,198	₦31.5bn	₦30.9bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	1,017	904	₦11.3bn	₦11.2bn	63%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	390	319	₦153m	₦153m	61%	1.9 yr
Anchor	169	158	₦6.96bn	₦6.35bn	75%	1.4 yr
Worship	129	125	₦418m	₦418m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	15	13	₦64.9m	₦64.9m	71%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	6	5	₦16.2m	₦16.2m	43%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,773	7,729	₦15.1bn	₦14.8bn	57%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	5,085	3,929	₦25.9bn	₦25.7bn	65%	1.6 yr
50 100m2	4,980	3,411	₦1.97bn	₦1.67bn	57%	1.9 yr
Under 30m2	4,858	3,378	₦418m	₦412m	55%	1.9 yr
30 50m2	3,232	2,218	₦610m	₦489m	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	67	57	₦6.43bn	₦5.97bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	10,695	7,476	₦11.4bn	₦11.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Dense Urban	9,234	7,955	₦20.5bn	₦19.9bn	65%	1.6 yr
Urban	5,589	3,599	₦12.9bn	₦12.9bn	65%	1.6 yr
Unclassified	2,714	1,205	₦3.18bn	₦2.59bn	25%	4.6 yr
Rural	763	487	₦2.38bn	₦2.38bn	67%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	10,934	7,645	₦25.5bn	₦25.3bn	67%	1.6 yr
Residential Small	6,837	4,824	₦2.56bn	₦2.23bn	65%	1.6 yr
Shed	5,191	3,249	₦417m	₦417m	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Formal	3,747	3,078	₦2.75bn	₦2.68bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial	730	657	₦8.83bn	₦8.77bn	65%	1.6 yr
Apartment	397	278	₦202m	₦201m	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	390	319	₦153m	₦153m	61%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	166	135	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	65%	1.6 yr
Duplex	163	124	₦59m	₦59m	55%	1.9 yr
Institutional	146	140	₦5.76bn	₦5.7bn	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	70	65	₦613m	₦613m	79%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	49	47	₦88.3m	₦88.3m	63%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	28,870	20,716	₦50.2bn	₦48.8bn
Farmland	83	0	₦9.87m	₦9.87m
Industrial	42	6	₦237m	₦237m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	27,914	19,758	₦33.4bn	₦32.7bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	897	793	₦9.98bn	₦9.92bn	65%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	184	171	₦7.02bn	₦6.42bn	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	14,682	10,889	₦35.7bn	₦34.7bn
0.0	5,200	3,259	₦419m	₦419m
4.0	4,457	3,621	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn
2.0	3,703	2,342	₦1.87bn	₦1.74bn
1.0	881	545	₦222m	₦222m
5.0	43	39	₦771m	₦757m
6.0	29	27	₦490m	₦490m