Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Oron, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Oron has 24,150 buildings with a viable rooftop and 702 MWp of roof capacity. 69% run a generator, and together they spend ₦144bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

24,150

Usable roof area

3.12 km²

702 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦144bn/yr

121 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

2.6 yr

Median IRR 43% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oron

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦144bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦51.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.42tn

NPV₦393bn

Median IRR43%

Median payback2.6 yr

Unlocked energy16.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity90.5 MWp

Capex₦93.9bn

Year-one energy value₦72.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.31tn

NPV₦552bn

Median IRR77%

Median payback1.4 yr

Three ways to size Oron's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 90.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦72.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦552bn
Median IRR: 77%
Median payback: 1.4 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oron pays back quickly

Of the 24,054 buildings in Oron with a modelled payback, 85.7% pay back inside five years and 57.8% inside three.

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How much of Oron's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oron consume 170 GWh/yr but want 186 GWh/yr. The 9% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oron

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oron actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 24,054 buildings with a modelled result out of 24,150 in Oron. 22,175 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years13,897 (58%)

Under 5 years20,609 (86%)

Under 7 years22,152 (92%)

Under 10 years22,968 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,847 (95%)

Above 15%22,175 (92%)

Above 20%21,071 (87%)

Above 25%16,387 (68%)

CO₂ avoided

84.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

29.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

332k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oron.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oron

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	21,867	15,547	₦126bn	₦44.2bn	41%	2.6 yr
E	1,872	859	₦7.26bn	₦3.36bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	411	320	₦10.8bn	₦3.59bn	57%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	23,747	16,368	₦140bn	₦47.9bn	41%	2.6 yr
Anchor	175	158	₦2.01bn	₦1.91bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	120	102	₦998m	₦998m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	86	80	₦144m	₦144m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	19	15	₦208m	₦207m	45%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1	1	₦393k	₦393k	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	1	1	₦1.97m	₦1.97m	71%	1.4 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦20.5m	₦20.5m	61%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	7,913	5,431	₦56.2bn	₦18.3bn	43%	2.4 yr
250 1000m2	5,046	3,590	₦69.4bn	₦25.3bn	45%	2.4 yr
Under 30m2	4,710	3,202	₦582m	₦457m	33%	3.1 yr
50 100m2	3,694	2,577	₦12.1bn	₦4.11bn	43%	2.6 yr
30 50m2	2,738	1,884	₦1.69bn	₦789m	41%	2.6 yr
Over 1000m2	49	42	₦3.92bn	₦2.24bn	49%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	21,224	15,203	₦113bn	₦41.7bn	43%	2.6 yr
Unclassified	1,487	719	₦20.6bn	₦5.81bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	1,439	804	₦10.8bn	₦3.65bn	51%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Formal	13,387	9,612	₦7.39bn	₦7.39bn	37%	2.9 yr
Residential	3,224	2,177	₦100bn	₦27bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	2,570	1,725	₦17.8bn	₦6.05bn	55%	1.9 yr
Residential Informal	2,521	1,769	₦14.7bn	₦7.28bn	37%	2.9 yr
Shed	2,045	1,085	₦146m	₦146m	45%	2.4 yr
Institutional	99	86	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	47%	2.4 yr
Educational Facility	53	45	₦251m	₦251m	61%	1.9 yr
School	49	44	₦147m	₦147m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	34	31	₦42.5m	₦42.5m	53%	2.1 yr
Worship Center	32	31	₦26.1m	₦26.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	31	29	₦384m	₦355m	39%	2.6 yr
Clinic	21	19	₦313m	₦243m	43%	2.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	24,078	16,654	₦144bn	₦51.1bn
Retail	72	72	₦60.4m	₦60.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	23,947	16,540	₦141bn	₦48.9bn	41%	2.6 yr
Enterprise	176	159	₦2.01bn	₦1.91bn	57%	1.9 yr
SME High	27	27	₦382m	₦382m	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
4.0	10,448	7,483	₦12.7bn	₦10.7bn
3.0	6,695	4,753	₦109bn	₦32.1bn
2.0	4,012	2,731	₦18.2bn	₦7.38bn
0.0	2,046	1,086	₦146m	₦146m
1.0	941	666	₦3.29bn	₦739m
5.0	8	7	₦156m	₦156m