Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Nsit Ubium, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Nsit Ubium has 21,665 buildings with a viable rooftop and 546 MWp of roof capacity. 43% run a generator, and together they spend ₦25bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

21,665

Usable roof area

2.43 km²

546 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦25bn/yr

23.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Nsit Ubium

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦25bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.26tn

NPV₦198bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.7 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity90.8 MWp

Capex₦93.1bn

Year-one energy value₦80.8bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.83tn

NPV₦644bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Nsit Ubium's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 90.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦93.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦80.8bn/yr
NPV: ₦644bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Nsit Ubium pays back quickly

Of the 21,649 buildings in Nsit Ubium with a modelled payback, 77.5% pay back inside five years and 43.1% inside three.

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How much of Nsit Ubium's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Nsit Ubium consume 30.9 GWh/yr but want 46.6 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Nsit Ubium

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Nsit Ubium actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 21,649 buildings with a modelled result out of 21,665 in Nsit Ubium. 18,732 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,327 (43%)

Under 5 years16,774 (77%)

Under 7 years18,712 (86%)

Under 10 years19,602 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%19,275 (89%)

Above 15%18,732 (86%)

Above 20%17,658 (82%)

Above 25%9,391 (43%)

CO₂ avoided

42.8 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

14 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.7 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

186k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Nsit Ubium.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Nsit Ubium

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	15,451	6,134	₦17.1bn	₦16.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	6,214	3,186	₦7.93bn	₦7.84bn	55%	1.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	20,688	8,416	₦20.3bn	₦20.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Worship	410	375	₦891m	₦891m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	309	291	₦1.99bn	₦1.98bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	171	159	₦1.61bn	₦1.48bn	79%	1.4 yr
Industrial	44	41	₦181m	₦179m	69%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	43	38	₦16.5m	₦16.5m	63%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	8,745	3,662	₦9.94bn	₦9.86bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	4,628	1,737	₦1.24bn	₦1.24bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	2,973	1,380	₦202m	₦200m	9%	9.9 yr
250 1000m2	2,717	1,480	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	65%	1.6 yr
30 50m2	2,590	1,055	₦298m	₦297m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	12	6	₦315m	₦315m	25%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	10,004	3,683	₦10.2bn	₦10.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	6,356	4,447	₦11.6bn	₦11.4bn	65%	1.6 yr
Unclassified	4,795	934	₦2.72bn	₦2.72bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	510	256	₦489m	₦489m	49%	2.1 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,032	3,839	₦18.1bn	₦17.9bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	7,575	3,070	₦2.07bn	₦2.07bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	4,081	1,507	₦190m	₦190m	9%	9.9 yr
Institutional	263	243	₦1.48bn	₦1.48bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	175	160	₦174m	₦174m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial Corridor	121	115	₦632m	₦632m	65%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	101	94	₦98m	₦98m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	80	75	₦549m	₦549m	81%	1.4 yr
School	48	46	₦269m	₦269m	79%	1.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	43	38	₦16.5m	₦16.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial Site	37	35	₦154m	₦152m	69%	1.6 yr
Market	29	27	₦55.9m	₦55.9m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	21,665	9,320	₦25bn	₦24.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	21,325	9,001	₦22.3bn	₦22.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	208	194	₦1.76bn	₦1.63bn	77%	1.4 yr
SME High	132	125	₦953m	₦950m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	8,417	4,075	₦20.6bn	₦20.4bn
2.0	7,941	3,165	₦3.12bn	₦3.08bn
0.0	4,082	1,507	₦190m	₦190m
1.0	1,146	498	₦183m	₦182m
4.0	77	73	₦840m	₦837m
5.0	2	2	₦42.1m	₦42.1m