Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Mbo, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Mbo has 12,006 buildings with a viable rooftop and 331 MWp of roof capacity. 46% run a generator, and together they spend ₦23bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

12,006

Usable roof area

1.47 km²

331 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦23bn/yr

19.6 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Mbo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦23bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦21.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.08tn

NPV₦170bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy13.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity76.5 MWp

Capex₦80.7bn

Year-one energy value₦71.3bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.34tn

NPV₦564bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Mbo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 76.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦80.7bn
Year 1 savings: ₦71.3bn/yr
NPV: ₦564bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Mbo pays back quickly

Of the 12,002 buildings in Mbo with a modelled payback, 87.2% pay back inside five years and 45.6% inside three.

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How much of Mbo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Mbo consume 28.5 GWh/yr but want 42.4 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Mbo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Mbo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 12,002 buildings with a modelled result out of 12,006 in Mbo. 11,011 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,468 (46%)

Under 5 years10,461 (87%)

Under 7 years11,008 (92%)

Under 10 years11,316 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%11,197 (93%)

Above 15%11,011 (92%)

Above 20%10,711 (89%)

Above 25%5,539 (46%)

CO₂ avoided

38.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

207k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Mbo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Mbo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
D	5,955	2,908	₦11bn	₦10.6bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	5,954	2,578	₦12bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.6 yr
C	95	3	₦27.9m	₦27.9m	23%	4.6 yr
B	2	0	₦3.61m	₦3.52m	17%	4.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	11,681	5,207	₦21.8bn	₦20.2bn	25%	4.6 yr
Worship	219	187	₦645m	₦614m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	65	57	₦222m	₦222m	57%	1.9 yr
Anchor	35	33	₦338m	₦338m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	6	5	₦14.1m	₦13.4m	69%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,001	2,320	₦9.86bn	₦9.5bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	2,698	1,109	₦1.76bn	₦1.73bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,813	897	₦10.7bn	₦9.46bn	25%	4.4 yr
30 50m2	1,381	606	₦233m	₦218m	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	1,098	549	₦77m	₦76.3m	33%	3.1 yr
Over 1000m2	15	8	₦423m	₦423m	39%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	9,445	3,728	₦18.3bn	₦16.7bn	25%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	1,166	870	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn	69%	1.6 yr
Urban	974	681	₦2.3bn	₦2.3bn	67%	1.6 yr
Rural	421	210	₦637m	₦637m	31%	3.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,975	2,540	₦18.7bn	₦17.2bn	53%	2.1 yr
Residential Small	2,831	1,356	₦2.06bn	₦2.02bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	1,989	865	₦107m	₦107m	21%	5.4 yr
Residential Formal	1,217	168	₦449m	₦449m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	669	278	₦466m	₦466m	25%	4.6 yr
Institutional	156	132	₦877m	₦846m	55%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	70	62	₦55.5m	₦55.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	46	39	₦30.5m	₦30.5m	61%	1.6 yr
School	15	14	₦45.8m	₦45.8m	81%	1.4 yr
Market	12	11	₦14.1m	₦14.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	10	9	₦59.8m	₦59.8m	83%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	6	5	₦14.1m	₦13.4m	69%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	12,006	5,489	₦23bn	₦21.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	11,965	5,451	₦22.7bn	₦21.1bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	41	38	₦352m	₦352m	73%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	4,539	2,202	₦7.6bn	₦7.25bn
3.0	2,974	1,653	₦13.6bn	₦12.4bn
0.0	1,859	845	₦101m	₦101m
1.0	1,513	623	₦1.06bn	₦1.02bn
4.0	1,121	166	₦638m	₦638m