Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Urue Offong/Oruko, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Urue Offong/Oruko has 10,237 buildings with a viable rooftop and 260 MWp of roof capacity. 55% run a generator, and together they spend ₦15bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

10,237

Usable roof area

1.16 km²

260 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦15bn/yr

14.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.9 yr

Median IRR 55% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Urue Offong/Oruko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦15bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦759bn

NPV₦119bn

Median IRR55%

Median payback1.9 yr

Unlocked energy9.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity49 MWp

Capex₦49.9bn

Year-one energy value₦42.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦2.02tn

NPV₦339bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Urue Offong/Oruko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 49 MWp
Capital cost: ₦49.9bn
Year 1 savings: ₦42.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦339bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Urue Offong/Oruko pays back quickly

Of the 10,223 buildings in Urue Offong/Oruko with a modelled payback, 83.9% pay back inside five years and 55.5% inside three.

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How much of Urue Offong/Oruko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Urue Offong/Oruko consume 18.8 GWh/yr but want 28.4 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Urue Offong/Oruko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Urue Offong/Oruko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 10,223 buildings with a modelled result out of 10,237 in Urue Offong/Oruko. 9,150 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years5,673 (55%)

Under 5 years8,573 (84%)

Under 7 years9,146 (89%)

Under 10 years9,453 (92%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%9,351 (91%)

Above 15%9,150 (89%)

Above 20%8,848 (86%)

Above 25%5,699 (56%)

CO₂ avoided

25.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.3 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

9.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

98.2k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Urue Offong/Oruko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Urue Offong/Oruko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	6,797	3,670	₦9.48bn	₦9.38bn	61%	1.6 yr
D	3,440	2,000	₦5.48bn	₦5.46bn	51%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,705	5,167	₦11.8bn	₦11.7bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	253	240	₦485m	₦485m	59%	1.9 yr
Commercial General	162	151	₦1.64bn	₦1.63bn	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	99	95	₦1.02bn	₦977m	77%	1.4 yr
Industrial	11	10	₦52m	₦52m	71%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	7	7	₦1.83m	₦1.83m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	4,244	2,337	₦6.05bn	₦6bn	55%	1.9 yr
50 100m2	1,936	935	₦646m	₦645m	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	1,666	977	₦139m	₦139m	55%	1.9 yr
250 1000m2	1,291	831	₦7.38bn	₦7.31bn	65%	1.6 yr
30 50m2	1,090	582	₦158m	₦158m	55%	1.9 yr
Over 1000m2	10	8	₦591m	₦591m	59%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	8,929	5,336	₦13.6bn	₦13.5bn	59%	1.9 yr
Unclassified	1,265	294	₦1.14bn	₦1.14bn	23%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	43	40	₦222m	₦222m	67%	1.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,406	2,456	₦10.5bn	₦10.5bn	57%	1.9 yr
Residential Small	3,260	1,698	₦1.11bn	₦1.1bn	49%	2.1 yr
Shed	2,039	1,013	₦140m	₦140m	19%	5.6 yr
Institutional	149	142	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	88	83	₦96.1m	₦96.1m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	78	74	₦55.7m	₦55.7m	61%	1.6 yr
Commercial	77	70	₦1.26bn	₦1.24bn	65%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	38	35	₦204m	₦204m	81%	1.4 yr
School	33	33	₦110m	₦110m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	15	15	₦263m	₦219m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	12	11	₦104m	₦104m	51%	2.1 yr
Unknown	12	12	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	53%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	10,237	5,670	₦15bn	₦14.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	10,050	5,495	₦12.6bn	₦12.6bn	55%	1.9 yr
Enterprise	110	105	₦1.07bn	₦1.03bn	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	77	70	₦1.26bn	₦1.24bn	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	4,154	2,510	₦11.9bn	₦11.8bn
2.0	3,400	1,714	₦1.56bn	₦1.55bn
0.0	1,997	983	₦126m	₦126m
1.0	624	408	₦108m	₦108m
4.0	61	54	₦1.15bn	₦1.13bn
5.0	1	1	₦79.4m	₦79.4m