Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Etinan, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Etinan has 24,016 buildings with a viable rooftop and 659 MWp of roof capacity. 44% run a generator, and together they spend ₦36.6bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

24,016

Usable roof area

2.93 km²

659 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦36.6bn/yr

34.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Etinan

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦36.6bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦35.7bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.82tn

NPV₦287bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy23.4 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity128 MWp

Capex₦131bn

Year-one energy value₦114bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.4tn

NPV₦908bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Etinan's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 128 MWp
Capital cost: ₦131bn
Year 1 savings: ₦114bn/yr
NPV: ₦908bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Etinan pays back quickly

Of the 23,986 buildings in Etinan with a modelled payback, 79.4% pay back inside five years and 44.2% inside three.

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How much of Etinan's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Etinan consume 44.4 GWh/yr but want 67.9 GWh/yr. The 35% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Etinan

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Etinan actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 23,986 buildings with a modelled result out of 24,016 in Etinan. 20,900 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years10,605 (44%)

Under 5 years19,033 (79%)

Under 7 years20,880 (87%)

Under 10 years21,889 (91%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,554 (90%)

Above 15%20,900 (87%)

Above 20%19,862 (83%)

Above 25%10,659 (44%)

CO₂ avoided

62.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

20.5 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

23.4 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

267k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Etinan.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Etinan

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	17,407	8,103	₦28.1bn	₦27.4bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	6,609	2,503	₦8.56bn	₦8.28bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	23,007	9,653	₦30.9bn	₦30.2bn	23%	4.6 yr
Commercial General	522	490	₦3.04bn	₦3.04bn	63%	1.6 yr
Worship	181	167	₦435m	₦435m	61%	1.9 yr
Anchor	155	154	₦2.03bn	₦1.83bn	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	121	116	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	30	26	₦146m	₦145m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,928	4,265	₦14.4bn	₦14.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	4,884	1,974	₦1.66bn	₦1.66bn	23%	4.6 yr
250 1000m2	3,594	1,985	₦19.1bn	₦18.7bn	67%	1.6 yr
Under 30m2	3,037	1,293	₦172m	₦171m	9%	12.9 yr
30 50m2	2,551	1,072	₦295m	₦294m	19%	5.9 yr
Over 1000m2	22	17	₦1.02bn	₦872m	69%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	9,745	5,480	₦14.7bn	₦14.6bn	63%	1.6 yr
Urban	8,104	3,396	₦15.6bn	₦15bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	6,161	1,729	₦6.35bn	₦6.12bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	6	1	₦200k	₦200k	9%	5.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	10,836	4,844	₦28bn	₦27.3bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	7,946	3,273	₦2.8bn	₦2.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	4,225	1,536	₦177m	₦177m	9%	9.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	361	339	₦1.88bn	₦1.88bn	63%	1.6 yr
Institutional	159	151	₦1.33bn	₦1.33bn	57%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	121	116	₦33.6m	₦33.6m	61%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	79	73	₦115m	₦115m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	61	61	₦393m	₦393m	81%	1.4 yr
School	46	46	₦223m	₦223m	79%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	45	42	₦37m	₦37m	61%	1.6 yr
Unknown	36	31	₦183m	₦183m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	28	25	₦144m	₦144m	69%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	24,016	10,606	₦36.6bn	₦35.7bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	23,470	10,087	₦32.5bn	₦31.8bn	23%	4.6 yr
SME High	363	340	₦1.93bn	₦1.93bn	63%	1.6 yr
Enterprise	183	179	₦2.17bn	₦1.98bn	75%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	10,509	5,136	₦30.7bn	₦29.9bn
2.0	8,201	3,308	₦3.86bn	₦3.76bn
0.0	4,225	1,536	₦177m	₦177m
1.0	862	418	₦143m	₦142m
4.0	212	201	₦1.56bn	₦1.56bn
5.0	7	7	₦181m	₦181m