Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Eastern Obolo, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Eastern Obolo has 7,590 buildings with a viable rooftop and 136 MWp of roof capacity. 28% run a generator, and together they spend ₦13.2bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

7,590

Usable roof area

606,709 m²

136 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦13.2bn/yr

6.83 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Eastern Obolo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦13.2bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.6bn

Lifetime cash saved₦680bn

NPV₦84.9bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy13.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity57.8 MWp

Capex₦60.5bn

Year-one energy value₦32.2bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.47tn

NPV₦224bn

Median IRR53%

Median payback1.9 yr

Three ways to size Eastern Obolo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 57.8 MWp
Capital cost: ₦60.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦32.2bn/yr
NPV: ₦224bn
Median IRR: 53%
Median payback: 1.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Eastern Obolo pays back quickly

Of the 7,574 buildings in Eastern Obolo with a modelled payback, 76.7% pay back inside five years and 13.8% inside three.

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How much of Eastern Obolo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Eastern Obolo consume 34.8 GWh/yr but want 48.4 GWh/yr. The 28% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Eastern Obolo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Eastern Obolo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 7,574 buildings with a modelled result out of 7,590 in Eastern Obolo. 6,804 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years1,043 (14%)

Under 5 years5,809 (77%)

Under 7 years6,791 (90%)

Under 10 years7,188 (95%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%7,119 (94%)

Above 15%6,804 (90%)

Above 20%6,099 (80%)

Above 25%2,153 (28%)

CO₂ avoided

27.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.51 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

145k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Eastern Obolo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Eastern Obolo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	4,375	1,250	₦7.13bn	₦6.82bn	25%	4.6 yr
B	1,220	226	₦1.77bn	₦1.59bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	1,153	521	₦3.49bn	₦3.43bn	25%	4.4 yr
E	482	135	₦492m	₦477m	23%	4.6 yr
D	360	12	₦332m	₦265m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	7,367	2,010	₦12.3bn	₦11.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
Worship	123	81	₦90.2m	₦90.2m	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	57	31	₦617m	₦617m	43%	2.6 yr
Commercial General	37	19	₦238m	₦238m	31%	3.4 yr
Industrial	6	3	₦2.22m	₦2m	35%	2.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	2,199	568	₦1.66bn	₦1.6bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	1,748	393	₦487m	₦467m	23%	4.9 yr
100 250m2	1,559	599	₦5.11bn	₦4.77bn	25%	4.4 yr
Under 30m2	1,475	366	₦106m	₦106m	21%	5.4 yr
250 1000m2	600	214	₦5.39bn	₦5.17bn	25%	4.4 yr
Over 1000m2	9	4	₦464m	₦464m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	2,563	264	₦1.89bn	₦1.62bn	23%	4.6 yr
Rural	2,532	986	₦6.05bn	₦5.85bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,772	714	₦3.34bn	₦3.25bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban	723	180	₦1.94bn	₦1.85bn	25%	4.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	3,304	959	₦2.69bn	₦2.61bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	2,302	407	₦44.7m	₦44.7m	19%	5.6 yr
Residential	1,760	644	₦9.53bn	₦8.98bn	25%	4.4 yr
Institutional	76	44	₦347m	₦347m	33%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	41	27	₦14.4m	₦14.4m	37%	2.9 yr
Place Of Worship	41	28	₦15.1m	₦15.1m	37%	2.9 yr
Educational Facility	21	13	₦105m	₦105m	45%	2.4 yr
School	18	11	₦60.1m	₦60.1m	43%	2.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	10	5	₦382m	₦382m	27%	3.6 yr
Clinic	6	2	₦17.4m	₦17.4m	27%	4.1 yr
Industrial Site	4	1	₦1.97m	₦1.75m	35%	3.1 yr
Market	3	1	₦2.21m	₦2.21m	33%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	7,590	2,144	₦13.2bn	₦12.6bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	7,527	2,110	₦12.6bn	₦12bn	25%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	63	34	₦619m	₦619m	41%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	3,554	1,280	₦11.2bn	₦10.6bn
0.0	2,304	408	₦44.8m	₦44.8m
2.0	1,228	336	₦1.63bn	₦1.58bn
1.0	504	120	₦348m	₦328m