Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Ini, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Ini has 25,062 buildings with a viable rooftop and 550 MWp of roof capacity. 38% run a generator, and together they spend ₦17.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

25,062

Usable roof area

2.45 km²

550 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦17.9bn/yr

16.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ini

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦17.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦17.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦897bn

NPV₦141bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy13.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity71.5 MWp

Capex₦74.5bn

Year-one energy value₦66.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.18tn

NPV₦536bn

Median IRR97%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ini's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 71.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦74.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦66.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦536bn
Median IRR: 97%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ini pays back quickly

Of the 25,003 buildings in Ini with a modelled payback, 70.0% pay back inside five years and 38.4% inside three.

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How much of Ini's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ini consume 23.4 GWh/yr but want 37 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ini

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ini actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 25,003 buildings with a modelled result out of 25,062 in Ini. 20,242 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,605 (38%)

Under 5 years17,511 (70%)

Under 7 years20,225 (81%)

Under 10 years21,944 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%21,433 (86%)

Above 15%20,242 (81%)

Above 20%18,470 (74%)

Above 25%10,309 (41%)

CO₂ avoided

31.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

9.66 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

13.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

168k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ini.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ini

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	17,958	6,867	₦12.2bn	₦11.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
D	5,976	2,176	₦4.36bn	₦4.23bn	25%	4.4 yr
B	603	269	₦510m	₦483m	25%	4.4 yr
C	525	283	₦897m	₦873m	49%	2.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	24,133	8,760	₦14.9bn	₦14.4bn	25%	4.4 yr
Worship	571	502	₦852m	₦852m	61%	1.6 yr
Anchor	187	173	₦1.31bn	₦1.27bn	81%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	149	138	₦848m	₦848m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	15	15	₦29.3m	₦27.8m	69%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	3	3	₦5.66m	₦5.66m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	2	₦2.26m	₦2.26m	67%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	2	2	₦5.25m	₦4.49m	67%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	9,779	3,915	₦7.77bn	₦7.74bn	25%	4.4 yr
50 100m2	5,907	2,025	₦1.31bn	₦1.18bn	25%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	3,859	1,421	₦174m	₦172m	9%	13.4 yr
30 50m2	3,369	1,141	₦242m	₦242m	11%	8.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,134	1,087	₦8.16bn	₦7.78bn	51%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	14	6	₦289m	₦262m	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	14,279	5,892	₦10.9bn	₦10.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Unclassified	5,897	1,516	₦2.86bn	₦2.73bn	25%	4.6 yr
Urban Centre	2,000	1,084	₦1.55bn	₦1.5bn	51%	2.1 yr
Rural	1,733	714	₦2.06bn	₦1.71bn	25%	4.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,153	389	₦587m	₦587m	25%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,383	3,617	₦12.6bn	₦12.3bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential Small	9,138	3,408	₦2.04bn	₦1.89bn	25%	4.6 yr
Shed	5,565	1,729	₦191m	₦191m	9%	12.6 yr
Institutional	316	285	₦1.48bn	₦1.45bn	57%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	199	173	₦133m	₦133m	63%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	183	162	₦139m	₦139m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	87	80	₦451m	₦451m	83%	1.4 yr
School	57	52	₦161m	₦161m	81%	1.4 yr
Residential Formal	47	6	₦40m	₦40m	25%	4.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	22	21	₦457m	₦439m	53%	1.9 yr
Clinic	19	19	₦121m	₦121m	53%	2.1 yr
Market	16	15	₦32.9m	₦32.9m	65%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	25,058	9,592	₦17.9bn	₦17.4bn
Farmland	4	3	₦659k	₦659k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	24,852	9,401	₦16.6bn	₦16bn	25%	4.4 yr
Enterprise	199	185	₦1.32bn	₦1.28bn	79%	1.4 yr
SME High	11	9	₦54.1m	₦53.3m	65%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	10,078	3,784	₦3.78bn	₦3.62bn
3.0	7,291	3,465	₦13.6bn	₦13.2bn
0.0	5,570	1,733	₦191m	₦191m
1.0	2,075	601	₦235m	₦235m
4.0	48	12	₦127m	₦99.7m