Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Udung Uko, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Udung Uko has 4,901 buildings with a viable rooftop and 135 MWp of roof capacity. 59% run a generator, and together they spend ₦10.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

4,901

Usable roof area

599,587 m²

135 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦10.4bn/yr

9.39 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

1.4 yr

Median IRR 73% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Udung Uko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦10.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦10.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦533bn

NPV₦87.9bn

Median IRR73%

Median payback1.4 yr

Unlocked energy7.77 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity28 MWp

Capex₦29.4bn

Year-one energy value₦31.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.48tn

NPV₦255bn

Median IRR115%

Median payback0.9 yr

Three ways to size Udung Uko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 28 MWp
Capital cost: ₦29.4bn
Year 1 savings: ₦31.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦255bn
Median IRR: 115%
Median payback: 0.9 yr

The odds a rooftop in Udung Uko pays back quickly

Of the 4,885 buildings in Udung Uko with a modelled payback, 87.5% pay back inside five years and 58.9% inside three.

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How much of Udung Uko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Udung Uko consume 12.4 GWh/yr but want 20.2 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Udung Uko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Udung Uko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 4,885 buildings with a modelled result out of 4,901 in Udung Uko. 4,427 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years2,876 (59%)

Under 5 years4,274 (87%)

Under 7 years4,428 (91%)

Under 10 years4,616 (94%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%4,563 (93%)

Above 15%4,427 (90%)

Above 20%4,325 (88%)

Above 25%4,175 (85%)

CO₂ avoided

18.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

7.77 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

72.2k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Udung Uko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Udung Uko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	2,443	1,662	₦6.81bn	₦6.81bn	81%	1.4 yr
D	2,397	1,212	₦3.55bn	₦3.55bn	51%	2.1 yr
C	37	0	₦11.1m	₦11.1m	29%	3.9 yr
B	24	0	₦330k	₦330k	13%	7.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	4,619	2,602	₦9.2bn	₦9.2bn	77%	1.4 yr
Worship	169	166	₦421m	₦421m	67%	1.6 yr
Anchor	55	53	₦499m	₦499m	85%	1.1 yr
Commercial General	48	45	₦208m	₦208m	63%	1.6 yr
Industrial	10	8	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	75%	1.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	2,027	1,206	₦4.79bn	₦4.79bn	81%	1.4 yr
Under 30m2	806	472	₦66.6m	₦66.6m	69%	1.6 yr
250 1000m2	798	496	₦4.98bn	₦4.98bn	83%	1.4 yr
50 100m2	774	432	₦454m	₦454m	79%	1.4 yr
30 50m2	496	268	₦82.9m	₦82.9m	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	2,611	1,675	₦6.13bn	₦6.13bn	75%	1.4 yr
Dense Urban	1,239	767	₦2.44bn	₦2.44bn	81%	1.4 yr
Unclassified	829	297	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn	29%	3.6 yr
Urban Centre	195	114	₦207m	₦207m	73%	1.4 yr
Rural	27	21	₦189m	₦189m	83%	1.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	2,283	1,307	₦8.39bn	₦8.39bn	83%	1.4 yr
Residential Small	1,496	824	₦763m	₦763m	79%	1.4 yr
Shed	840	471	₦50.3m	₦50.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Institutional	95	93	₦506m	₦506m	63%	1.6 yr
Worship Center	57	57	₦81.9m	₦81.9m	71%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	56	53	₦34.5m	₦34.5m	69%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	18	18	₦81.2m	₦81.2m	91%	1.1 yr
School	15	14	₦63.5m	₦63.5m	89%	1.1 yr
Healthcare Facility	10	10	₦222m	₦222m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial Site	10	8	₦37.7m	₦37.7m	75%	1.4 yr
Clinic	9	8	₦69.6m	₦69.6m	55%	1.9 yr
Market	9	8	₦6.96m	₦6.96m	71%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	4,901	2,874	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	4,836	2,813	₦9.83bn	₦9.83bn	73%	1.4 yr
Enterprise	65	61	₦537m	₦537m	81%	1.4 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	2,195	1,367	₦8.89bn	₦8.89bn
2.0	1,563	886	₦1.35bn	₦1.35bn
0.0	834	469	₦49.8m	₦49.8m
1.0	309	152	₦73.8m	₦73.8m