Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Ika, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Ika has 15,344 buildings with a viable rooftop and 325 MWp of roof capacity. 23% run a generator, and together they spend ₦7.79bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

15,344

Usable roof area

1.45 km²

325 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦7.79bn/yr

7.33 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ika

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦7.79bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦7.59bn

Lifetime cash saved₦392bn

NPV₦60.9bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy6.68 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity43.6 MWp

Capex₦45.2bn

Year-one energy value₦39.7bn

Lifetime energy value₦1.89tn

NPV₦317bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ika's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 43.6 MWp
Capital cost: ₦45.2bn
Year 1 savings: ₦39.7bn/yr
NPV: ₦317bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ika pays back quickly

Of the 15,276 buildings in Ika with a modelled payback, 58.7% pay back inside five years and 23.2% inside three.

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How much of Ika's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ika consume 10.8 GWh/yr but want 17.5 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ika

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ika actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 15,276 buildings with a modelled result out of 15,344 in Ika. 11,334 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years3,546 (23%)

Under 5 years8,967 (59%)

Under 7 years11,309 (74%)

Under 10 years12,519 (82%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%12,141 (79%)

Above 15%11,334 (74%)

Above 20%9,796 (64%)

Above 25%3,624 (24%)

CO₂ avoided

14 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.06 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

6.68 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

102k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ika.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ika

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	10,536	2,350	₦5.64bn	₦5.45bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	4,776	1,190	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	23%	4.6 yr
C	32	0	₦4.03m	₦4.03m	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	14,748	3,037	₦6.01bn	₦5.82bn	23%	4.6 yr
Worship	346	284	₦459m	₦459m	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	113	102	₦787m	₦782m	77%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	108	93	₦440m	₦440m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	26	21	₦87.8m	₦87.4m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial Retail	3	3	₦741k	₦741k	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	5,308	1,245	₦3.09bn	₦3.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	3,970	810	₦541m	₦484m	21%	5.1 yr
Under 30m2	2,568	549	₦71.2m	₦70.3m	7%	14.6 yr
30 50m2	2,149	437	₦102m	₦102m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	1,341	494	₦3.73bn	₦3.62bn	25%	4.6 yr
Over 1000m2	8	5	₦260m	₦260m	57%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Dense Urban	6,884	1,647	₦3.23bn	₦3.12bn	23%	4.9 yr
Urban	6,434	1,674	₦3.93bn	₦3.87bn	23%	4.6 yr
Unclassified	2,026	219	₦626m	₦603m	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	6,067	1,350	₦736m	₦680m	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	5,328	1,223	₦5.23bn	₦5.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	3,353	464	₦47.4m	₦47.4m	7%	13.6 yr
Institutional	200	170	₦695m	₦695m	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	134	109	₦101m	₦101m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	92	76	₦37.8m	₦37.8m	61%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	51	46	₦231m	₦231m	79%	1.4 yr
School	26	22	₦82.6m	₦82.6m	79%	1.4 yr
Industrial Site	21	18	₦82.6m	₦82.2m	69%	1.6 yr
Market	21	16	₦18.9m	₦18.9m	61%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	18	17	₦191m	₦188m	51%	2.1 yr
Clinic	13	12	₦98.5m	₦96.3m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	15,344	3,540	₦7.79bn	₦7.59bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	15,203	3,414	₦6.87bn	₦6.68bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	134	120	₦869m	₦864m	75%	1.4 yr
SME High	7	6	₦46.7m	₦46.7m	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	6,188	1,677	₦6.44bn	₦6.33bn
2.0	4,836	1,131	₦1.18bn	₦1.1bn
0.0	3,357	468	₦47.8m	₦47.8m
1.0	957	260	₦75.8m	₦75.8m
4.0	4	2	₦8.42m	₦8.42m
5.0	2	2	₦36.6m	₦36.6m