Akwa Ibom State

Rooftop solar in Ukanafun, Akwa Ibom: what the roofs are worth

Ukanafun has 26,243 buildings with a viable rooftop and 641 MWp of roof capacity. 37% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19.9bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

26,243

Usable roof area

2.85 km²

641 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19.9bn/yr

18.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ukanafun

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19.9bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦19.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.02tn

NPV₦158bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy15.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity89.3 MWp

Capex₦92.5bn

Year-one energy value₦79.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.77tn

NPV₦633bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ukanafun's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 89.3 MWp
Capital cost: ₦92.5bn
Year 1 savings: ₦79.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦633bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ukanafun pays back quickly

Of the 26,216 buildings in Ukanafun with a modelled payback, 70.5% pay back inside five years and 37.0% inside three.

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How much of Ukanafun's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ukanafun consume 26.1 GWh/yr but want 41.2 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ukanafun

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ukanafun actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 26,216 buildings with a modelled result out of 26,243 in Ukanafun. 21,895 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,690 (37%)

Under 5 years18,477 (70%)

Under 7 years21,863 (83%)

Under 10 years23,157 (88%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%22,787 (87%)

Above 15%21,895 (83%)

Above 20%19,826 (76%)

Above 25%9,862 (38%)

CO₂ avoided

35.6 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

11 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

195k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ukanafun.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ukanafun

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	17,466	6,345	₦13.1bn	₦13.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	8,777	3,434	₦6.79bn	₦6.75bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	25,142	8,795	₦16.2bn	₦16.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
Worship	737	640	₦1.23bn	₦1.23bn	59%	1.9 yr
Anchor	190	181	₦1.71bn	₦1.71bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial General	152	143	₦727m	₦727m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	22	20	₦59.9m	₦59.7m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
100 250m2	10,504	3,953	₦8.55bn	₦8.48bn	23%	4.6 yr
50 100m2	6,327	2,155	₦1.15bn	₦1.14bn	23%	4.6 yr
Under 30m2	3,459	1,166	₦130m	₦130m	7%	13.9 yr
30 50m2	3,043	1,004	₦225m	₦225m	15%	7.4 yr
250 1000m2	2,896	1,488	₦9.37bn	₦9.37bn	47%	2.1 yr
Over 1000m2	14	13	₦478m	₦478m	69%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	18,672	6,379	₦13.7bn	₦13.7bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	4,731	2,828	₦4.64bn	₦4.64bn	49%	2.1 yr
Unclassified	2,840	572	₦1.53bn	₦1.51bn	23%	4.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	9,885	3,630	₦14bn	₦14bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	9,180	3,242	₦1.79bn	₦1.78bn	23%	4.6 yr
Shed	4,842	1,346	₦147m	₦147m	9%	13.1 yr
Residential Formal	614	224	₦77.2m	₦77.2m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential Informal	607	351	₦137m	₦137m	27%	4.1 yr
Institutional	380	340	₦1.82bn	₦1.82bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	284	244	₦195m	₦195m	61%	1.6 yr
Place Of Worship	199	175	₦123m	₦123m	61%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	85	80	₦477m	₦477m	79%	1.4 yr
School	40	39	₦116m	₦116m	77%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	33	31	₦614m	₦608m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	22	20	₦59.9m	₦59.7m	67%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	26,243	9,779	₦19.9bn	₦19.8bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	26,029	9,576	₦18.1bn	₦18bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	212	201	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn	73%	1.4 yr
SME High	2	2	₦40.6m	₦40.6m	67%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
3.0	9,854	4,308	₦16.5bn	₦16.4bn
2.0	9,417	3,464	₦2.81bn	₦2.77bn
0.0	4,853	1,350	₦147m	₦147m
1.0	1,498	408	₦152m	₦147m
4.0	621	249	₦342m	₦342m