Nigeria rooftop solar data

Rooftop solar in Benue State: buildings, spend and payback

3,297,881 buildings in Benue State carry a viable rooftop. Together they spend ₦443bn a year on grid power and generator fuel, and 11% of them run a generator.

Viable buildings

3,297,881

Usable roof area

122 km²

27 GWp of roof capacity

Current energy spend

₦443bn/yr

413 GWh/yr from generators

Median payback

15.6 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Benue

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦443bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦436bn

Lifetime cash saved₦23.2tn

NPV₦3.47tn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.6 yr

Unlocked energy441 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity2.39 GWp

Capex₦2.48tn

Year-one energy value₦2.18tn

Lifetime energy value₦103tn

NPV₦17.4tn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Benue State's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 2.39 GWp
Capital cost: ₦2.48tn
Year 1 savings: ₦2.18tn/yr
NPV: ₦17.4tn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Benue State pays back quickly

Of the 3,183,743 buildings in Benue State with a modelled payback, 25.4% pay back inside five years and 11.1% inside three.

Payback under 5 years

25.4%

Payback under 3 years

11.1%

IRR above 20%

26.3%

Under 3 years · 11%3 – 5 years · 14%5 – 7 years · 7%7 – 10 years · 6%Over 10 years · 61%

Coverage: 97% of buildings in Benue State produced a payback figure. Buildings with no viable scenario are excluded rather than counted as zero.

How much of Benue State's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Benue State consume 759 GWh/yr but want 1.2 TWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

Met today · 63%Suppressed · 37%

Energy wanted

1.2 TWh/yr

Energy consumed

759 GWh/yr

Unmet demand

441 GWh/yr

Modelled latent demand, not metered consumption. It is the load buildings would run given affordable, available supply.

How many rooftops in Benue State actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 3,183,743 buildings with a modelled result out of 3,297,881 in Benue State. 1,036,723 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years352,495 (11%)

Under 5 years809,188 (25%)

Under 7 years1,036,099 (33%)

Under 10 years1,227,988 (39%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%1,188,359 (36%)

Above 15%1,036,723 (31%)

Above 20%866,985 (26%)

Above 25%701,759 (21%)

Electricity billing bands in Benue State

Loading band economics…

What a delivered unit costs, by DisCo

Grid tariff plus the generator running that fills the gap, blended across every building the DisCo serves. Ranked most expensive first — the higher the all-in rate, the stronger the case for solar.

Loading the league table…

Ikeja and Eko are reported together as Lagos. Rates are modelled blends of billed grid energy and generator running, not published tariffs.

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Benue State.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Where the opportunity sits

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	1,072,251	108,181	₦127bn	₦126bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	884,690	92,328	₦113bn	₦111bn	5%	16.6 yr
E	763,063	82,386	₦105bn	₦103bn	5%	16.6 yr
B	304,790	39,847	₦48.4bn	₦48.2bn	15%	6.6 yr
A	273,087	48,125	₦49.8bn	₦48.1bn	19%	5.4 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	3,210,654	324,414	₦276bn	₦271bn	5%	15.9 yr
Commercial Retail	33,787	12,025	₦2.42bn	₦2.42bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	31,261	16,214	₦55.1bn	₦55bn	37%	2.9 yr
Anchor	11,326	9,378	₦101bn	₦98.5bn	61%	1.6 yr
Worship	8,249	6,953	₦5.4bn	₦5.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	1,728	1,336	₦1.59bn	₦1.59bn	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	456	222	₦1.62bn	₦1.62bn	37%	2.9 yr
Productive Use	340	316	₦292m	₦292m	65%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	51	9	₦21.4m	₦21.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	27	0	₦14.7m	₦14.7m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦329k	₦329k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	2,071,808	132,117	₦13bn	₦12.9bn	5%	17.9 yr
50 100m2	446,417	75,913	₦45.8bn	₦45.1bn	23%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	364,730	47,309	₦9.57bn	₦9.41bn	9%	13.1 yr
100 250m2	351,981	91,905	₦154bn	₦152bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	59,472	21,779	₦128bn	₦127bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	3,473	1,844	₦93bn	₦90.4bn	51%	2.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	1,216,971	85,851	₦146bn	₦142bn	5%	17.1 yr
Urban	1,116,076	127,199	₦139bn	₦138bn	5%	16.1 yr
Urban Centre	421,289	65,678	₦64.3bn	₦62.6bn	17%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	285,146	38,167	₦37.8bn	₦37.6bn	11%	7.9 yr
Rural	258,399	53,972	₦56.4bn	₦55.9bn	7%	13.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	2,106,596	125,677	₦12bn	₦12bn	5%	17.6 yr
Residential Small	486,409	88,061	₦51bn	₦50bn	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	345,171	80,547	₦203bn	₦199bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	186,848	16,017	₦5.93bn	₦5.93bn	15%	5.9 yr
Residential Formal	81,774	13,375	₦4.05bn	₦3.99bn	19%	5.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	34,078	12,309	₦2.65bn	₦2.65bn	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	11,747	5,284	₦25bn	₦24.9bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	9,961	8,483	₦88.4bn	₦87.4bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	8,645	2,952	₦14bn	₦14bn	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	3,837	3,312	₦7.32bn	₦7.32bn	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	3,458	2,912	₦1.46bn	₦1.46bn	59%	1.9 yr
School	2,689	2,189	₦3.89bn	₦3.89bn	77%	1.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	3,295,572	370,709	₦439bn	₦432bn
Farmland	1,138	4	₦13.9m	₦13.9m
Industrial	528	151	₦4bn	₦4bn
Commercial	478	2	₦84.9m	₦84.9m
Retail	100	0	₦671k	₦671k
Farmyard	61	1	₦1.21m	₦1.21m
Orchard	4	0	₦140k	₦140k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	3,264,650	352,139	₦302bn	₦297bn	5%	15.9 yr
SME High	20,699	8,349	₦39.7bn	₦39.6bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	12,532	10,379	₦102bn	₦99.3bn	63%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	2,105,215	125,897	₦11.9bn	₦11.9bn
2.0	456,392	92,187	₦95.9bn	₦93.9bn
3.0	331,951	84,583	₦267bn	₦262bn
1.0	273,874	48,556	₦19.6bn	₦19.4bn
4.0	120,533	17,514	₦29.6bn	₦29.2bn
5.0	8,644	1,765	₦10.7bn	₦10.6bn
6.0	1,272	365	₦8.85bn	₦8.8bn