Benue State

Rooftop solar in Ado, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Ado has 45,321 buildings with a viable rooftop and 515 MWp of roof capacity. 14% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

45,321

Usable roof area

2.32 km²

515 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.5bn/yr

10.4 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.6 yr

Median IRR 23% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ado

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦634bn

NPV₦98.3bn

Median IRR23%

Median payback4.6 yr

Unlocked energy11.1 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity83.1 MWp

Capex₦89bn

Year-one energy value₦86.9bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.13tn

NPV₦705bn

Median IRR103%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ado's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 83.1 MWp
Capital cost: ₦89bn
Year 1 savings: ₦86.9bn/yr
NPV: ₦705bn
Median IRR: 103%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ado pays back quickly

Of the 45,155 buildings in Ado with a modelled payback, 53.6% pay back inside five years and 14.5% inside three.

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How much of Ado's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ado consume 18 GWh/yr but want 29.1 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ado

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ado actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 45,155 buildings with a modelled result out of 45,321 in Ado. 27,206 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years6,545 (14%)

Under 5 years24,202 (54%)

Under 7 years27,195 (60%)

Under 10 years29,211 (65%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%28,448 (63%)

Above 15%27,206 (60%)

Above 20%25,295 (56%)

Above 25%21,548 (48%)

CO₂ avoided

23.4 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.58 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

11.1 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

320k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ado.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Ado

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
E	16,838	2,365	₦3.96bn	₦3.78bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	14,708	2,492	₦5bn	₦4.97bn	25%	4.4 yr
C	13,775	1,687	₦3.5bn	₦3.45bn	23%	4.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	44,707	5,949	₦11.2bn	₦11bn	23%	4.6 yr
Anchor	222	213	₦640m	₦640m	67%	1.6 yr
Commercial General	162	158	₦306m	₦306m	57%	1.9 yr
Worship	143	137	₦152m	₦152m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	43	43	₦58.6m	₦58.6m	67%	1.6 yr
Industrial	32	32	₦42.4m	₦42.3m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	12	12	₦35.6m	₦35.6m	67%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
50 100m2	15,515	1,903	₦2.45bn	₦2.43bn	25%	4.1 yr
Under 30m2	13,842	1,496	₦156m	₦156m	5%	16.6 yr
30 50m2	8,141	1,020	₦288m	₦288m	9%	12.6 yr
100 250m2	7,064	1,766	₦5.56bn	₦5.44bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	744	350	₦3.69bn	₦3.56bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	15	9	₦319m	₦319m	71%	1.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	22,835	2,173	₦5.85bn	₦5.69bn	25%	4.4 yr
Urban	14,990	2,504	₦3.87bn	₦3.84bn	23%	4.9 yr
Rural	4,849	1,242	₦1.86bn	₦1.81bn	23%	4.6 yr
Dense Urban	2,647	625	₦866m	₦865m	23%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Small	18,749	2,505	₦2.92bn	₦2.9bn	25%	4.1 yr
Shed	18,145	1,714	₦162m	₦162m	7%	15.6 yr
Residential	6,908	1,729	₦8.11bn	₦7.87bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	904	0	₦26.1m	₦26.1m	21%	4.9 yr
Institutional	184	180	₦424m	₦424m	55%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	85	81	₦179m	₦179m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	63	58	₦43.7m	₦43.7m	63%	1.6 yr
Healthcare Facility	45	44	₦145m	₦145m	49%	2.1 yr
Clinic	45	43	₦180m	₦180m	51%	2.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	43	43	₦58.6m	₦58.6m	67%	1.6 yr
School	43	41	₦58.7m	₦58.7m	77%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	32	32	₦10.7m	₦10.7m	61%	1.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	45,321	6,544	₦12.5bn	₦12.2bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	45,073	6,305	₦11.8bn	₦11.5bn	23%	4.6 yr
Enterprise	232	223	₦555m	₦554m	69%	1.6 yr
SME High	16	16	₦122m	₦122m	53%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	18,153	1,722	₦163m	₦163m
2.0	12,572	2,532	₦4.91bn	₦4.8bn
1.0	11,847	1,199	₦1.3bn	₦1.28bn
3.0	2,740	1,084	₦6.02bn	₦5.89bn
4.0	9	7	₦64.4m	₦64.4m