Benue State

Rooftop solar in Buruku, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Buruku has 202,891 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.24 GWp of roof capacity. 6% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

202,891

Usable roof area

5.66 km²

1.24 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.5bn/yr

12.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Buruku

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.4bn

Lifetime cash saved₦669bn

NPV₦96.3bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.4 yr

Unlocked energy15 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity101 MWp

Capex₦107bn

Year-one energy value₦99.1bn

Lifetime energy value₦4.72tn

NPV₦799bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Buruku's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 101 MWp
Capital cost: ₦107bn
Year 1 savings: ₦99.1bn/yr
NPV: ₦799bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Buruku pays back quickly

Of the 197,362 buildings in Buruku with a modelled payback, 15.6% pay back inside five years and 5.7% inside three.

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How much of Buruku's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Buruku consume 22.6 GWh/yr but want 37.6 GWh/yr. The 40% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Buruku

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Buruku actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 197,362 buildings with a modelled result out of 202,891 in Buruku. 38,314 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years11,159 (6%)

Under 5 years30,763 (16%)

Under 7 years38,304 (19%)

Under 10 years45,188 (23%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%43,602 (21%)

Above 15%38,314 (19%)

Above 20%32,899 (16%)

Above 25%26,324 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

24.2 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.45 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

15 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

305k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Buruku.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Buruku

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	78,809	4,846	₦4.65bn	₦4.65bn	5%	17.1 yr
D	64,479	3,069	₦3.72bn	₦3.71bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	52,885	2,927	₦3.76bn	₦3.76bn	5%	17.6 yr
B	6,718	438	₦327m	₦327m	15%	6.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	198,299	8,684	₦6.14bn	₦6.12bn	5%	17.4 yr
Commercial General	1,833	1,057	₦1.15bn	₦1.15bn	47%	2.4 yr
Commercial Retail	1,818	667	₦49.2m	₦49.2m	29%	3.9 yr
Anchor	654	598	₦4.88bn	₦4.88bn	67%	1.6 yr
Worship	198	189	₦63.7m	₦63.7m	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	88	84	₦174m	₦174m	65%	1.6 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦68.8k	₦68.8k	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	148,496	5,864	₦607m	₦607m	3%	18.4 yr
50 100m2	20,321	1,581	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	21%	4.9 yr
30 50m2	18,894	1,190	₦249m	₦249m	7%	14.4 yr
100 250m2	12,512	1,756	₦3.17bn	₦3.15bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,485	781	₦3.16bn	₦3.16bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	183	108	₦4.17bn	₦4.17bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	110,606	6,525	₦6.39bn	₦6.39bn	5%	17.1 yr
Unclassified	70,208	2,679	₦4.56bn	₦4.55bn	5%	17.9 yr
Dense Urban	11,375	804	₦737m	₦737m	7%	14.4 yr
Rural	6,959	633	₦492m	₦492m	5%	16.6 yr
Urban Centre	3,743	639	₦270m	₦270m	13%	6.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	155,085	4,995	₦528m	₦528m	5%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	23,492	1,466	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	15,945	2,111	₦4.49bn	₦4.47bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	3,755	108	₦51.2m	₦51.2m	3%	8.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,818	667	₦49.2m	₦49.2m	29%	3.9 yr
Market	670	352	₦40.1m	₦40.1m	43%	2.6 yr
Institutional	504	464	₦4.3bn	₦4.3bn	55%	1.9 yr
Commercial	456	200	₦204m	₦204m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	266	108	₦202m	₦202m	35%	3.1 yr
Educational Facility	227	216	₦548m	₦548m	81%	1.4 yr
School	158	148	₦269m	₦269m	79%	1.4 yr
Healthcare Facility	126	109	₦339m	₦339m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	202,285	11,278	₦12.4bn	₦12.4bn
Farmland	606	2	₦10.4m	₦10.4m

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	201,436	10,299	₦7bn	₦6.99bn	5%	17.4 yr
Enterprise	732	672	₦5.05bn	₦5.05bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	723	309	₦406m	₦406m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	155,155	5,033	₦531m	₦531m
2.0	18,974	2,059	₦3.03bn	₦3.03bn
1.0	18,224	2,357	₦824m	₦824m
3.0	10,311	1,774	₦7.76bn	₦7.74bn
4.0	221	53	₦194m	₦194m
5.0	5	4	₦115m	₦115m
6.0	1	0	₦707k	₦707k