Benue State

Rooftop solar in Guma, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Guma has 114,466 buildings with a viable rooftop and 648 MWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦11.1bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

114,466

Usable roof area

2.97 km²

648 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦11.1bn/yr

10.3 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Guma

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦11.1bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦11bn

Lifetime cash saved₦598bn

NPV₦86bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.1 yr

Unlocked energy12.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity86.5 MWp

Capex₦89.8bn

Year-one energy value₦82.5bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.9tn

NPV₦662bn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Guma's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 86.5 MWp
Capital cost: ₦89.8bn
Year 1 savings: ₦82.5bn/yr
NPV: ₦662bn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Guma pays back quickly

Of the 112,642 buildings in Guma with a modelled payback, 24.3% pay back inside five years and 7.8% inside three.

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How much of Guma's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Guma consume 21.5 GWh/yr but want 34.1 GWh/yr. The 37% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Guma

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Guma actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 112,642 buildings with a modelled result out of 114,466 in Guma. 32,940 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,795 (8%)

Under 5 years27,362 (24%)

Under 7 years32,930 (29%)

Under 10 years38,639 (34%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,496 (33%)

Above 15%32,940 (29%)

Above 20%28,741 (25%)

Above 25%24,598 (21%)

CO₂ avoided

21.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

4.7 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

12.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

281k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Guma.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Guma

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	42,124	2,057	₦2.18bn	₦2.17bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	30,109	2,804	₦3.61bn	₦3.49bn	5%	16.9 yr
E	28,367	2,055	₦2.64bn	₦2.61bn	5%	16.6 yr
B	13,338	2,396	₦2.7bn	₦2.7bn	25%	4.4 yr
A	528	1	₦8.68m	₦8.68m	11%	8.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	106,326	6,623	₦6.2bn	₦6.05bn	5%	16.4 yr
Commercial Retail	5,326	1,077	₦171m	₦171m	31%	3.6 yr
Commercial General	1,752	650	₦1.89bn	₦1.89bn	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	618	573	₦239m	₦239m	53%	1.9 yr
Anchor	409	361	₦2.61bn	₦2.61bn	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	35	29	₦34m	₦34m	65%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	80,909	4,769	₦496m	₦496m	5%	17.4 yr
30 50m2	13,707	1,215	₦337m	₦337m	9%	13.4 yr
50 100m2	13,108	1,564	₦1.64bn	₦1.61bn	27%	4.1 yr
100 250m2	5,762	1,347	₦2.94bn	₦2.91bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	896	372	₦3.22bn	₦3.14bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	84	46	₦2.51bn	₦2.5bn	53%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	61,732	3,234	₦5.56bn	₦5.42bn	5%	16.6 yr
Urban	20,732	1,606	₦1.3bn	₦1.3bn	7%	15.4 yr
Dense Urban	17,595	2,338	₦2.83bn	₦2.83bn	19%	5.4 yr
Rural	14,407	2,135	₦1.45bn	₦1.44bn	5%	16.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	81,268	3,182	₦319m	₦319m	5%	17.4 yr
Residential Small	15,184	1,741	₦1.71bn	₦1.68bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential	8,299	1,283	₦4.08bn	₦3.97bn	27%	4.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	5,326	1,077	₦171m	₦171m	31%	3.6 yr
Residential Formal	1,471	385	₦80.1m	₦80.1m	27%	4.1 yr
Commercial	878	149	₦1.01bn	₦1.01bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	449	405	₦2.39bn	₦2.39bn	53%	2.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	418	102	₦521m	₦521m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	289	270	₦75.1m	₦75.1m	57%	1.9 yr
Market	178	172	₦21.9m	₦21.9m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	153	138	₦188m	₦188m	79%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	135	123	₦13.7m	₦13.7m	51%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	114,466	9,313	₦11.1bn	₦11bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	112,730	8,676	₦6.98bn	₦6.83bn	5%	16.1 yr
SME High	1,296	251	₦1.53bn	₦1.53bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	440	386	₦2.63bn	₦2.63bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	81,396	3,295	₦323m	₦323m
2.0	13,388	1,753	₦2.13bn	₦2.09bn
1.0	9,225	2,124	₦685m	₦672m
3.0	7,890	1,642	₦6.43bn	₦6.33bn
4.0	1,682	433	₦316m	₦316m
5.0	839	45	₦478m	₦478m
6.0	46	21	₦782m	₦777m