Benue State

Rooftop solar in Kwande, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Kwande has 287,886 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.9 GWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦14.8bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

287,886

Usable roof area

8.66 km²

1.9 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦14.8bn/yr

15 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Kwande

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦14.8bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦14.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦780bn

NPV₦110bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.1 yr

Unlocked energy18.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity124 MWp

Capex₦135bn

Year-one energy value₦126bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.98tn

NPV₦1.01tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Kwande's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 124 MWp
Capital cost: ₦135bn
Year 1 savings: ₦126bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.01tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Kwande pays back quickly

Of the 279,575 buildings in Kwande with a modelled payback, 16.2% pay back inside five years and 5.1% inside three.

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How much of Kwande's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Kwande consume 28.1 GWh/yr but want 46.3 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Kwande

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Kwande actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 279,575 buildings with a modelled result out of 287,886 in Kwande. 62,022 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years14,302 (5%)

Under 5 years45,171 (16%)

Under 7 years62,017 (22%)

Under 10 years74,201 (27%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%71,950 (25%)

Above 15%62,022 (22%)

Above 20%49,558 (17%)

Above 25%37,073 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

28.7 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

6.15 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

18.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

415k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Kwande.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Kwande

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	103,673	5,044	₦4.95bn	₦4.75bn	5%	17.4 yr
D	94,348	4,936	₦4.51bn	₦4.49bn	5%	17.4 yr
E	75,371	3,095	₦4.51bn	₦4.45bn	5%	17.4 yr
B	14,494	2,095	₦853m	₦851m	17%	6.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	285,024	12,654	₦6.99bn	₦6.99bn	5%	17.1 yr
Commercial General	997	869	₦1.36bn	₦1.36bn	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	812	744	₦6.16bn	₦5.88bn	75%	1.4 yr
Commercial Retail	638	518	₦42.6m	₦42.6m	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	308	286	₦153m	₦153m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	100	96	₦44.3m	₦44.3m	65%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	7	3	₦66.2m	₦66.2m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	202,271	6,763	₦686m	₦686m	3%	18.4 yr
50 100m2	31,547	2,415	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	27,312	1,730	₦299m	₦299m	7%	14.1 yr
100 250m2	22,962	3,073	₦3.75bn	₦3.75bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,585	1,088	₦4.01bn	₦4.01bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	209	101	₦5.02bn	₦4.75bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	134,171	3,593	₦7.56bn	₦7.28bn	3%	18.1 yr
Urban	113,189	6,935	₦5.37bn	₦5.37bn	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	24,175	4,142	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	15%	6.4 yr
Rural	16,351	500	₦441m	₦441m	5%	17.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	214,504	6,205	₦681m	₦681m	5%	18.1 yr
Residential Small	35,109	2,252	₦1.02bn	₦1.02bn	21%	5.1 yr
Residential	26,972	3,102	₦5.12bn	₦5.12bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Informal	5,905	451	₦95m	₦95m	13%	6.4 yr
Residential Formal	2,523	643	₦72m	₦72m	19%	5.1 yr
Institutional	656	603	₦5.56bn	₦5.28bn	55%	1.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	638	518	₦42.6m	₦42.6m	49%	2.1 yr
Commercial	337	271	₦409m	₦409m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	317	304	₦558m	₦558m	83%	1.4 yr
School	198	186	₦260m	₦260m	81%	1.4 yr
Worship Center	149	138	₦50.2m	₦50.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Healthcare Facility	135	111	₦529m	₦527m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	287,865	15,168	₦14.8bn	₦14.5bn
Commercial	19	2	₦46.4m	₦46.4m
Farmland	2	0	₦2.09k	₦2.09k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	286,586	14,016	₦8.14bn	₦8.14bn	5%	17.1 yr
Enterprise	911	839	₦6.2bn	₦5.92bn	69%	1.4 yr
SME High	389	315	₦473m	₦473m	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	214,581	6,268	₦684m	₦684m
2.0	30,528	3,405	₦3.64bn	₦3.64bn
1.0	29,415	2,553	₦735m	₦735m
3.0	10,940	2,321	₦9.27bn	₦9bn
4.0	2,418	622	₦476m	₦476m
5.0	4	1	₦11.7m	₦11.7m