Benue State

Rooftop solar in Makurdi, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Makurdi has 254,397 buildings with a viable rooftop and 3.62 GWp of roof capacity. 19% run a generator, and together they spend ₦54.4bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

254,397

Usable roof area

16.2 km²

3.62 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦54.4bn/yr

45.2 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

5.6 yr

Median IRR 17% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Makurdi

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦54.4bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦52.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.93tn

NPV₦416bn

Median IRR17%

Median payback5.6 yr

Unlocked energy60.9 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity258 MWp

Capex₦246bn

Year-one energy value₦163bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.63tn

NPV₦1.22tn

Median IRR69%

Median payback1.6 yr

Three ways to size Makurdi's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 258 MWp
Capital cost: ₦246bn
Year 1 savings: ₦163bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.22tn
Median IRR: 69%
Median payback: 1.6 yr

The odds a rooftop in Makurdi pays back quickly

Of the 239,140 buildings in Makurdi with a modelled payback, 42.9% pay back inside five years and 16.5% inside three.

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How much of Makurdi's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Makurdi consume 126 GWh/yr but want 187 GWh/yr. The 33% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Makurdi

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Makurdi actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 239,140 buildings with a modelled result out of 254,397 in Makurdi. 149,771 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years39,378 (16%)

Under 5 years102,559 (43%)

Under 7 years149,656 (63%)

Under 10 years181,848 (76%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%177,755 (70%)

Above 15%149,771 (59%)

Above 20%112,822 (44%)

Above 25%86,834 (34%)

CO₂ avoided

108 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

19.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

60.9 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

285k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Makurdi.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Makurdi

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	162,190	32,262	₦33.4bn	₦31.9bn	19%	5.1 yr
B	55,695	12,041	₦16.9bn	₦16.9bn	19%	5.4 yr
C	20,611	2,093	₦2.56bn	₦2.56bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	8,493	856	₦1.19bn	₦1.04bn	5%	17.6 yr
E	7,408	300	₦445m	₦445m	5%	17.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	240,095	42,698	₦23.1bn	₦23.1bn	17%	6.1 yr
Commercial General	6,440	2,045	₦12.8bn	₦12.7bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	5,741	2,065	₦592m	₦592m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	882	313	₦16.6bn	₦15bn	43%	2.6 yr
Worship	778	323	₦520m	₦520m	35%	3.1 yr
Hospitality	200	32	₦651m	₦651m	35%	3.1 yr
Industrial	178	67	₦181m	₦181m	37%	2.9 yr
Mall Retail	41	5	₦19.4m	₦19.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	27	4	₦26.3m	₦26.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	13	0	₦11.3m	₦11.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Automotive	2	0	₦329k	₦329k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	107,508	16,056	₦1.45bn	₦1.45bn	7%	9.1 yr
100 250m2	57,978	13,257	₦13.8bn	₦13.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	45,847	8,775	₦3.1bn	₦3.09bn	19%	5.4 yr
30 50m2	31,467	5,880	₦966m	₦965m	17%	6.4 yr
250 1000m2	11,216	3,387	₦15.7bn	₦15.7bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	381	197	₦19.4bn	₦17.9bn	37%	2.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	183,429	35,065	₦33.8bn	₦32.5bn	19%	5.1 yr
Urban	31,579	7,764	₦11.1bn	₦11.1bn	17%	6.4 yr
Unclassified	24,173	2,769	₦5.89bn	₦5.89bn	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	13,249	1,655	₦2.41bn	₦2.28bn	13%	7.6 yr
Rural	1,967	299	₦1.19bn	₦1.04bn	3%	18.4 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential Informal	80,965	8,671	₦2.98bn	₦2.98bn	17%	5.6 yr
Shed	80,157	13,093	₦1.19bn	₦1.19bn	13%	7.9 yr
Residential Small	31,059	10,001	₦2.65bn	₦2.64bn	23%	4.9 yr
Residential	23,927	8,908	₦15.8bn	₦15.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	22,393	1,845	₦474m	₦474m	15%	6.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	5,752	2,068	₦591m	₦591m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,955	1,018	₦5.88bn	₦5.86bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	2,146	682	₦4.41bn	₦4.38bn	35%	3.1 yr
Apartment	986	101	₦26.8m	₦26.8m	25%	4.6 yr
Unknown	680	158	₦759m	₦759m	31%	3.6 yr
Institutional	608	264	₦12.6bn	₦12.4bn	31%	3.4 yr
Duplex	607	79	₦16.6m	₦16.6m	23%	4.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	254,014	47,514	₦53.9bn	₦52.4bn
Commercial	244	0	₦36m	₦36m
Industrial	127	36	₦442m	₦442m
Farmland	11	1	₦746k	₦746k
Farmyard	1	1	₦442k	₦442k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	248,243	45,505	₦27.3bn	₦27.2bn	17%	5.9 yr
SME High	5,248	1,720	₦10.6bn	₦10.5bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	906	327	₦16.6bn	₦15bn	43%	2.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	79,969	13,117	₦1.18bn	₦1.18bn
3.0	59,863	17,071	₦32.8bn	₦31.6bn
2.0	49,378	8,302	₦2.51bn	₦2.51bn
4.0	47,164	5,436	₦10.8bn	₦10.4bn
1.0	14,889	3,025	₦561m	₦561m
5.0	2,629	502	₦3.14bn	₦3.14bn
6.0	505	99	₦3.45bn	₦3.42bn