Benue State

Rooftop solar in Oturkpo, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Oturkpo has 128,678 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.07 GWp of roof capacity. 33% run a generator, and together they spend ₦47.3bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

128,678

Usable roof area

9.27 km²

2.07 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦47.3bn/yr

42 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

4.4 yr

Median IRR 25% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Oturkpo

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦47.3bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦46.8bn

Lifetime cash saved₦2.48tn

NPV₦377bn

Median IRR25%

Median payback4.4 yr

Unlocked energy41.3 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity172 MWp

Capex₦172bn

Year-one energy value₦138bn

Lifetime energy value₦6.52tn

NPV₦1.08tn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Oturkpo's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 172 MWp
Capital cost: ₦172bn
Year 1 savings: ₦138bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.08tn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Oturkpo pays back quickly

Of the 127,046 buildings in Oturkpo with a modelled payback, 58.6% pay back inside five years and 29.8% inside three.

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How much of Oturkpo's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Oturkpo consume 79.9 GWh/yr but want 121 GWh/yr. The 34% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Oturkpo

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Oturkpo actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 127,046 buildings with a modelled result out of 128,678 in Oturkpo. 92,328 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years37,874 (30%)

Under 5 years74,477 (59%)

Under 7 years92,259 (73%)

Under 10 years103,364 (81%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%101,253 (79%)

Above 15%92,328 (72%)

Above 20%79,416 (62%)

Above 25%65,255 (51%)

CO₂ avoided

87.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

22.6 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

41.3 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

297k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Oturkpo.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Oturkpo

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	38,517	9,906	₦8.28bn	₦8.28bn	27%	4.1 yr
B	25,597	10,146	₦13.2bn	₦13.1bn	27%	4.1 yr
C	23,852	8,742	₦9.98bn	₦9.96bn	21%	4.9 yr
E	21,157	7,902	₦8.26bn	₦7.87bn	23%	4.6 yr
D	19,555	6,105	₦7.64bn	₦7.59bn	19%	5.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	123,996	40,656	₦32.3bn	₦31.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial General	2,473	1,017	₦8.95bn	₦8.93bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Retail	1,339	527	₦302m	₦302m	33%	3.1 yr
Anchor	702	505	₦5.5bn	₦5.49bn	53%	2.1 yr
Worship	88	61	₦60.1m	₦60.1m	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial	47	31	₦103m	₦103m	51%	2.1 yr
Hospitality	25	4	₦130m	₦130m	35%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	8	0	₦1.88m	₦1.88m	35%	3.1 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	37,415	10,705	₦861m	₦860m	7%	13.1 yr
100 250m2	35,359	13,713	₦19.1bn	₦18.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
50 100m2	31,728	9,779	₦3.87bn	₦3.83bn	25%	4.6 yr
30 50m2	18,011	5,641	₦904m	₦848m	17%	6.1 yr
250 1000m2	5,977	2,834	₦16.1bn	₦16bn	31%	3.4 yr
Over 1000m2	188	129	₦6.46bn	₦6.46bn	55%	1.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	50,072	14,598	₦14.9bn	₦14.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
Urban	34,754	14,437	₦16.3bn	₦16.2bn	25%	4.1 yr
Unclassified	23,112	7,301	₦10.6bn	₦10.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
Rural	13,337	4,338	₦3.54bn	₦3.54bn	19%	5.6 yr
Dense Urban	7,403	2,127	₦2.03bn	₦2.03bn	21%	4.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	36,270	12,147	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	9%	9.9 yr
Residential Small	28,912	10,847	₦3.94bn	₦3.91bn	25%	4.4 yr
Residential	21,894	10,509	₦24.9bn	₦24.5bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	21,162	4,568	₦1.35bn	₦1.29bn	23%	4.4 yr
Residential Informal	15,751	2,582	₦1.05bn	₦1.05bn	25%	4.4 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,435	323	₦2.15bn	₦2.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,339	527	₦302m	₦302m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	501	367	₦5.32bn	₦5.3bn	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	414	310	₦4.96bn	₦4.96bn	51%	2.1 yr
Educational Facility	250	177	₦563m	₦563m	69%	1.6 yr
School	200	129	₦256m	₦256m	53%	1.9 yr
Unknown	136	47	₦426m	₦426m	31%	3.4 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	128,664	42,800	₦47.3bn	₦46.8bn
Commercial	13	0	₦770k	₦770k
Industrial	1	1	₦275k	₦275k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	125,990	41,585	₦34.3bn	₦33.8bn	25%	4.4 yr
SME High	1,962	691	₦7.49bn	₦7.46bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	726	525	₦5.57bn	₦5.56bn	53%	2.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
2.0	35,712	12,642	₦10.3bn	₦9.92bn
0.0	34,463	11,421	₦928m	₦928m
3.0	21,301	8,513	₦26.7bn	₦26.6bn
4.0	19,371	4,038	₦5.5bn	₦5.48bn
1.0	17,046	6,151	₦1.89bn	₦1.87bn
5.0	663	31	₦1.26bn	₦1.26bn
6.0	122	5	₦775m	₦775m