Benue State

Rooftop solar in Gboko, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Gboko has 297,216 buildings with a viable rooftop and 2.79 GWp of roof capacity. 8% run a generator, and together they spend ₦33.5bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

297,216

Usable roof area

12.6 km²

2.79 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦33.5bn/yr

29.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

13.9 yr

Median IRR 7% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gboko

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦33.5bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦33.2bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.87tn

NPV₦263bn

Median IRR7%

Median payback13.9 yr

Unlocked energy46.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity231 MWp

Capex₦231bn

Year-one energy value₦179bn

Lifetime energy value₦8.46tn

NPV₦1.4tn

Median IRR87%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gboko's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 231 MWp
Capital cost: ₦231bn
Year 1 savings: ₦179bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.4tn
Median IRR: 87%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gboko pays back quickly

Of the 280,705 buildings in Gboko with a modelled payback, 24.5% pay back inside five years and 7.7% inside three.

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How much of Gboko's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gboko consume 76.2 GWh/yr but want 123 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gboko

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gboko actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 280,705 buildings with a modelled result out of 297,216 in Gboko. 101,025 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years21,669 (8%)

Under 5 years68,698 (24%)

Under 7 years100,898 (36%)

Under 10 years131,140 (47%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%126,114 (42%)

Above 15%101,025 (34%)

Above 20%75,224 (25%)

Above 25%58,121 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

70.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

12.1 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

46.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

455k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gboko.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gboko

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
A	71,844	5,956	₦8.2bn	₦7.93bn	15%	6.4 yr
C	66,534	4,418	₦6.26bn	₦6.26bn	5%	16.9 yr
B	60,708	7,784	₦7.93bn	₦7.93bn	15%	6.4 yr
D	49,186	2,620	₦4.64bn	₦4.64bn	5%	17.1 yr
E	48,944	3,184	₦6.43bn	₦6.43bn	5%	16.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	286,416	20,593	₦13.3bn	₦13.2bn	7%	14.4 yr
Commercial Retail	4,828	1,097	₦339m	₦339m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	4,554	1,342	₦6.16bn	₦6.15bn	35%	3.1 yr
Anchor	757	475	₦13bn	₦12.8bn	49%	2.1 yr
Worship	343	241	₦417m	₦417m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	271	207	₦218m	₦218m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	37	7	₦30.3m	₦30.3m	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	6	0	₦1.36m	₦1.36m	33%	3.1 yr
Filling Station	3	0	₦1.05m	₦1.05m	35%	3.1 yr
Productive Use	1	0	₦16.8k	₦16.8k	31%	3.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	176,047	10,090	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	5%	17.1 yr
50 100m2	42,651	4,019	₦2.15bn	₦2.08bn	19%	5.4 yr
100 250m2	36,729	4,824	₦6.73bn	₦6.73bn	25%	4.1 yr
30 50m2	34,166	2,901	₦584m	₦584m	9%	9.6 yr
250 1000m2	7,135	1,894	₦9.6bn	₦9.59bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	488	234	₦13.3bn	₦13.1bn	33%	3.4 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban Centre	117,042	11,894	₦11.3bn	₦11bn	15%	6.4 yr
Urban	97,530	7,064	₦10.4bn	₦10.4bn	5%	16.1 yr
Unclassified	65,911	3,548	₦9.2bn	₦9.19bn	5%	17.1 yr
Rural	8,648	849	₦895m	₦895m	5%	16.6 yr
Dense Urban	8,085	607	₦1.63bn	₦1.63bn	9%	9.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	172,298	9,437	₦961m	₦961m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Informal	43,952	2,497	₦873m	₦873m	13%	6.6 yr
Residential Small	36,288	3,871	₦1.77bn	₦1.7bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	26,579	4,777	₦9.62bn	₦9.62bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	7,058	0	₦39.3m	₦39.3m	5%	8.9 yr
Kiosk Shop	4,827	1,097	₦335m	₦335m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial	2,118	657	₦3.61bn	₦3.59bn	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	1,483	130	₦1.74bn	₦1.74bn	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	738	539	₦12.2bn	₦12.1bn	51%	2.1 yr
Industrial Site	223	177	₦142m	₦142m	61%	1.6 yr
Market	200	140	₦31.5m	₦31.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Unknown	190	51	₦122m	₦122m	31%	3.6 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	296,845	23,898	₦31.7bn	₦31.4bn
Industrial	347	64	₦1.78bn	₦1.78bn
Farmland	13	0	₦440k	₦440k
Farmyard	11	0	₦252k	₦252k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	292,599	22,521	₦14.9bn	₦14.9bn	7%	14.1 yr
SME High	3,637	790	₦5.38bn	₦5.36bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	980	651	₦13.2bn	₦13bn	55%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	171,679	9,476	₦963m	₦963m
2.0	49,921	5,865	₦3.77bn	₦3.77bn
1.0	29,544	2,918	₦962m	₦961m
3.0	28,985	4,843	₦20.6bn	₦20.4bn
4.0	14,741	287	₦2.31bn	₦2.31bn
5.0	2,052	436	₦2.18bn	₦2.18bn
6.0	294	137	₦2.63bn	₦2.61bn