Benue State

Rooftop solar in Gwer East, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Gwer East has 163,482 buildings with a viable rooftop and 954 MWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦8.95bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

163,482

Usable roof area

4.38 km²

954 MWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦8.95bn/yr

8.97 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

16.4 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Gwer East

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦8.95bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦8.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦482bn

NPV₦66.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback16.4 yr

Unlocked energy10.5 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity83 MWp

Capex₦87.1bn

Year-one energy value₦78.6bn

Lifetime energy value₦3.74tn

NPV₦631bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Gwer East's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 83 MWp
Capital cost: ₦87.1bn
Year 1 savings: ₦78.6bn/yr
NPV: ₦631bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Gwer East pays back quickly

Of the 157,471 buildings in Gwer East with a modelled payback, 15.9% pay back inside five years and 5.4% inside three.

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How much of Gwer East's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Gwer East consume 17.3 GWh/yr but want 27.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Gwer East

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Gwer East actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 157,471 buildings with a modelled result out of 163,482 in Gwer East. 31,552 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years8,574 (5%)

Under 5 years25,061 (16%)

Under 7 years31,513 (20%)

Under 10 years39,908 (25%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%37,772 (23%)

Above 15%31,552 (19%)

Above 20%26,694 (16%)

Above 25%21,613 (13%)

CO₂ avoided

17.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

3.69 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

10.5 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

242k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Gwer East.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Gwer East

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	67,533	4,392	₦5.78bn	₦5.73bn	5%	16.4 yr
D	49,698	2,450	₦1.79bn	₦1.79bn	5%	16.6 yr
E	36,283	1,467	₦1.25bn	₦1.25bn	5%	16.9 yr
B	9,960	245	₦129m	₦129m	9%	9.1 yr
A	8	0	₦182k	₦182k	7%	15.1 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	158,755	5,891	₦4.13bn	₦4.08bn	5%	16.6 yr
Commercial Retail	2,088	927	₦119m	₦119m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,514	829	₦1.52bn	₦1.52bn	47%	2.1 yr
Anchor	500	396	₦2.88bn	₦2.88bn	55%	1.9 yr
Worship	458	393	₦222m	₦222m	55%	1.9 yr
Industrial	136	91	₦60.2m	₦60.2m	59%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	18	18	₦6.31m	₦6.31m	61%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	13	9	₦11m	₦11m	61%	1.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	114,514	4,608	₦512m	₦512m	5%	17.6 yr
30 50m2	20,927	1,178	₦329m	₦311m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	18,030	1,250	₦1.09bn	₦1.06bn	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	8,505	1,045	₦2.01bn	₦2.01bn	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	1,447	449	₦2.66bn	₦2.66bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	59	24	₦2.35bn	₦2.35bn	27%	4.1 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	90,572	3,576	₦3.15bn	₦3.14bn	5%	16.9 yr
Rural	27,656	2,562	₦3.3bn	₦3.27bn	5%	16.1 yr
Dense Urban	22,903	954	₦1.2bn	₦1.2bn	7%	9.9 yr
Urban	22,351	1,462	₦1.29bn	₦1.29bn	5%	15.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	119,510	3,614	₦404m	₦404m	5%	17.1 yr
Residential Small	21,722	1,055	₦1.02bn	₦975m	21%	4.9 yr
Residential	13,029	1,222	₦2.68bn	₦2.68bn	19%	4.9 yr
Residential Formal	4,437	0	₦21.9m	₦21.9m	5%	9.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	2,106	945	₦126m	₦126m	33%	3.1 yr
Commercial Corridor	520	123	₦379m	₦379m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial	515	345	₦645m	₦645m	57%	1.9 yr
Institutional	480	397	₦2.66bn	₦2.66bn	53%	1.9 yr
Worship Center	198	172	₦43.3m	₦43.3m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	174	142	₦227m	₦227m	79%	1.4 yr
School	123	92	₦103m	₦103m	75%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	118	101	₦15.6m	₦15.6m	55%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	163,429	8,504	₦7.18bn	₦7.13bn
Industrial	53	50	₦1.77bn	₦1.77bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	161,866	7,625	₦5bn	₦4.95bn	5%	16.4 yr
SME High	1,041	475	₦1.03bn	₦1.03bn	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	575	454	₦2.92bn	₦2.92bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	119,607	3,683	₦408m	₦408m
2.0	16,054	1,431	₦1.58bn	₦1.58bn
1.0	12,241	1,940	₦649m	₦602m
3.0	12,003	1,404	₦5.62bn	₦5.62bn
4.0	3,308	66	₦433m	₦433m
5.0	249	22	₦212m	₦212m
6.0	20	8	₦42.4m	₦42.4m