Benue State

Rooftop solar in Katsina-Ala, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Katsina-Ala has 294,963 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.55 GWp of roof capacity. 3% run a generator, and together they spend ₦12.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

294,963

Usable roof area

7.12 km²

1.55 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦12.7bn/yr

12.1 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Katsina-Ala

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦12.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦12.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦687bn

NPV₦92.7bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.9 yr

Unlocked energy16 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity109 MWp

Capex₦117bn

Year-one energy value₦105bn

Lifetime energy value₦5tn

NPV₦844bn

Median IRR91%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Katsina-Ala's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 109 MWp
Capital cost: ₦117bn
Year 1 savings: ₦105bn/yr
NPV: ₦844bn
Median IRR: 91%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Katsina-Ala pays back quickly

Of the 282,213 buildings in Katsina-Ala with a modelled payback, 11.8% pay back inside five years and 3.5% inside three.

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How much of Katsina-Ala's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Katsina-Ala consume 25.9 GWh/yr but want 41.9 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Katsina-Ala

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Katsina-Ala actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 282,213 buildings with a modelled result out of 294,963 in Katsina-Ala. 43,327 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years9,852 (3%)

Under 5 years33,305 (12%)

Under 7 years43,334 (15%)

Under 10 years54,539 (19%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%52,331 (18%)

Above 15%43,327 (15%)

Above 20%35,639 (12%)

Above 25%28,566 (10%)

CO₂ avoided

25.3 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

5.04 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

16 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

328k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Katsina-Ala.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Katsina-Ala

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	106,444	3,591	₦3.66bn	₦3.62bn	5%	17.9 yr
D	93,244	2,288	₦3.41bn	₦3.41bn	3%	18.1 yr
E	73,681	1,601	₦2.14bn	₦2.14bn	5%	18.1 yr
B	21,594	2,715	₦3.47bn	₦3.37bn	15%	6.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	290,138	7,309	₦5.87bn	₦5.76bn	5%	17.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,660	766	₦111m	₦111m	35%	3.1 yr
Commercial General	1,622	925	₦2.6bn	₦2.58bn	47%	2.4 yr
Worship	733	562	₦213m	₦213m	53%	2.1 yr
Anchor	633	497	₦3.78bn	₦3.78bn	57%	1.9 yr
Industrial	148	113	₦77.5m	₦77.5m	63%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	17	14	₦13.4m	₦13.4m	57%	1.9 yr
Productive Use	8	8	₦1.93m	₦1.93m	63%	1.6 yr
Filling Station	3	0	₦506k	₦506k	35%	3.1 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦189k	₦189k	43%	2.4 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	231,712	5,089	₦780m	₦721m	3%	18.6 yr
30 50m2	25,473	1,147	₦302m	₦302m	7%	14.6 yr
50 100m2	21,793	1,384	₦992m	₦989m	23%	4.6 yr
100 250m2	12,727	1,605	₦2.82bn	₦2.8bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	2,962	861	₦4.45bn	₦4.4bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	296	109	₦3.33bn	₦3.33bn	29%	3.9 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	158,605	3,273	₦5.16bn	₦5.13bn	3%	18.4 yr
Urban	93,297	2,947	₦3.13bn	₦3.13bn	5%	17.9 yr
Urban Centre	22,332	3,190	₦3.59bn	₦3.49bn	15%	6.6 yr
Rural	14,386	771	₦751m	₦747m	5%	16.9 yr
Dense Urban	6,343	14	₦40.6m	₦40.6m	3%	16.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	231,488	3,532	₦586m	₦586m	3%	18.4 yr
Residential Small	24,650	1,076	₦938m	₦937m	23%	4.6 yr
Residential	24,265	1,802	₦4.15bn	₦4.05bn	13%	5.6 yr
Residential Informal	9,692	899	₦190m	₦190m	7%	7.1 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,667	773	₦112m	₦112m	35%	3.1 yr
Institutional	732	584	₦3.58bn	₦3.58bn	51%	2.1 yr
Commercial	528	248	₦1.58bn	₦1.56bn	37%	2.9 yr
Commercial Corridor	341	142	₦393m	₦393m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	334	251	₦61.1m	₦61.1m	55%	1.9 yr
Market	250	157	₦22.6m	₦22.6m	57%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	213	179	₦296m	₦296m	79%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	169	131	₦15.6m	₦15.6m	49%	2.1 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	294,415	10,195	₦12.7bn	₦12.5bn
Farmland	401	0	₦1.7m	₦1.7m
Retail	100	0	₦671k	₦671k
Farmyard	47	0	₦437k	₦437k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	293,307	9,193	₦6.84bn	₦6.73bn	5%	17.9 yr
SME High	881	398	₦1.98bn	₦1.96bn	37%	2.9 yr
Enterprise	775	604	₦3.86bn	₦3.85bn	59%	1.9 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	231,664	3,636	₦592m	₦592m
2.0	29,655	2,443	₦1.94bn	₦1.93bn
1.0	21,743	2,282	₦623m	₦563m
3.0	11,067	1,594	₦7.66bn	₦7.61bn
4.0	460	135	₦1.23bn	₦1.21bn
5.0	319	85	₦351m	₦351m
6.0	55	20	₦276m	₦276m