Benue State

Rooftop solar in Vandeikya, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Vandeikya has 168,293 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.33 GWp of roof capacity. 11% run a generator, and together they spend ₦19bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

168,293

Usable roof area

6.03 km²

1.33 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦19bn/yr

20.5 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

15.9 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Vandeikya

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦19bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦18.9bn

Lifetime cash saved₦987bn

NPV₦150bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback15.9 yr

Unlocked energy19.2 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity111 MWp

Capex₦117bn

Year-one energy value₦107bn

Lifetime energy value₦5.05tn

NPV₦855bn

Median IRR95%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Vandeikya's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 111 MWp
Capital cost: ₦117bn
Year 1 savings: ₦107bn/yr
NPV: ₦855bn
Median IRR: 95%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Vandeikya pays back quickly

Of the 164,427 buildings in Vandeikya with a modelled payback, 23.3% pay back inside five years and 11.3% inside three.

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How much of Vandeikya's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Vandeikya consume 31.7 GWh/yr but want 50.8 GWh/yr. The 38% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Vandeikya

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Vandeikya actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 164,427 buildings with a modelled result out of 168,293 in Vandeikya. 48,557 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,597 (11%)

Under 5 years38,367 (23%)

Under 7 years48,521 (30%)

Under 10 years56,941 (35%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%55,084 (33%)

Above 15%48,557 (29%)

Above 20%41,114 (24%)

Above 25%33,221 (20%)

CO₂ avoided

34.5 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

8.69 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

19.2 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

289k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Vandeikya.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

Full price tracker Size a home system Size a business system

Building mix in Vandeikya

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	61,398	6,357	₦7.59bn	₦7.49bn	5%	15.9 yr
D	51,787	6,810	₦6.84bn	₦6.83bn	5%	15.9 yr
E	45,854	5,512	₦4.35bn	₦4.34bn	5%	16.1 yr
B	9,254	126	₦249m	₦249m	11%	7.9 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	165,395	17,090	₦8.93bn	₦8.91bn	5%	15.9 yr
Commercial Retail	1,010	264	₦37.4m	₦37.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Commercial General	848	476	₦1.06bn	₦1.06bn	45%	2.4 yr
Anchor	498	455	₦8.43bn	₦8.32bn	69%	1.6 yr
Worship	474	459	₦416m	₦416m	59%	1.9 yr
Industrial	66	60	₦93.3m	₦93.2m	67%	1.6 yr
Hospitality	2	1	₦67.6m	₦67.6m	35%	2.6 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	108,804	10,252	₦774m	₦774m	5%	17.4 yr
50 100m2	21,552	2,512	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn	21%	5.1 yr
30 50m2	18,908	2,067	₦290m	₦290m	9%	13.6 yr
100 250m2	15,340	2,618	₦3.4bn	₦3.38bn	27%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	3,400	1,178	₦5.14bn	₦5.14bn	27%	4.1 yr
Over 1000m2	289	178	₦8.34bn	₦8.22bn	63%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Urban	113,100	13,959	₦11.8bn	₦11.8bn	5%	15.9 yr
Unclassified	34,736	3,759	₦5.33bn	₦5.24bn	5%	16.4 yr
Dense Urban	19,195	1,022	₦1.85bn	₦1.84bn	9%	9.4 yr
Rural	1,262	65	₦48.3m	₦48.3m	5%	15.9 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	116,611	10,497	₦793m	₦793m	5%	16.9 yr
Residential Small	25,298	2,753	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	21%	5.4 yr
Residential	20,501	3,836	₦7.05bn	₦7.04bn	27%	4.1 yr
Residential Formal	1,670	0	₦6.71m	₦6.71m	3%	9.1 yr
Residential Informal	1,215	0	₦2.96m	₦2.96m	1%	14.6 yr
Kiosk Shop	1,010	264	₦37.4m	₦37.4m	33%	3.4 yr
Institutional	520	486	₦8.3bn	₦8.19bn	57%	1.9 yr
Commercial	388	111	₦180m	₦180m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	193	188	₦116m	₦116m	63%	1.6 yr
Educational Facility	157	148	₦317m	₦317m	83%	1.4 yr
School	121	114	₦209m	₦209m	83%	1.4 yr
Place Of Worship	119	113	₦24.5m	₦24.5m	61%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	168,293	18,805	₦19bn	₦18.9bn

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	167,240	18,134	₦10.2bn	₦10.2bn	5%	15.9 yr
Enterprise	564	515	₦8.52bn	₦8.41bn	67%	1.6 yr
SME High	489	156	₦302m	₦302m	35%	3.1 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	116,693	10,563	₦798m	₦798m
3.0	32,156	5,142	₦16.3bn	₦16.2bn
2.0	12,793	2,086	₦1.4bn	₦1.4bn
1.0	4,020	962	₦225m	₦225m
4.0	2,399	32	₦162m	₦162m
5.0	213	20	₦81.4m	₦81.4m
6.0	19	0	₦27.7m	₦27.7m