Benue State

Rooftop solar in Ukum, Benue: what the roofs are worth

Ukum has 344,598 buildings with a viable rooftop and 1.9 GWp of roof capacity. 5% run a generator, and together they spend ₦24.7bn a year on energy.

Viable buildings

344,598

Usable roof area

8.72 km²

1.9 GWp roof capacity

Energy spend

₦24.7bn/yr

27.7 GWh/yr burned on generators

Median payback

17.1 yr

Median IRR 5% (cash saved)

The savings bracket for Ukum

Approach B

Cash saved

What these buildings stop paying — merit order, capped at current spend.

Current energy spend₦24.7bn/yr

Year-one cash saved₦24.5bn

Lifetime cash saved₦1.31tn

NPV₦192bn

Median IRR5%

Median payback17.1 yr

Unlocked energy28.6 GWh/yr

Approach A

Energy value (upper bracket)

What the energy is worth if full latent demand were met. Not cash saved.

Installed capacity161 MWp

Capex₦170bn

Year-one energy value₦151bn

Lifetime energy value₦7.13tn

NPV₦1.2tn

Median IRR93%

Median payback1.1 yr

Three ways to size Ukum's rooftops

Solar + battery. The default headline scenario, and the one the SEO fact base quotes. Prices the energy a full solar+storage system would deliver.

Baseline: mixed

Counterfactual: grid when available, generator otherwise, weighted by the NTL-derived grid availability. The realistic case, and what the headline numbers use. Always falls between grid and genset by construction.

Read with care: Sized to LATENT demand — the energy the building would use if it could. Against a cash baseline that only reflects today's spend this looks oversized; that is what sc3 exists to fix.

System size: 161 MWp
Capital cost: ₦170bn
Year 1 savings: ₦151bn/yr
NPV: ₦1.2tn
Median IRR: 93%
Median payback: 1.1 yr

The odds a rooftop in Ukum pays back quickly

Of the 325,712 buildings in Ukum with a modelled payback, 13.4% pay back inside five years and 5.7% inside three.

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How much of Ukum's demand actually gets met

Buildings in Ukum consume 45 GWh/yr but want 73.6 GWh/yr. The 39% they cannot buy is suppressed demand — load that appears the moment supply is reliable.

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Electricity billing bands in Ukum

Loading band economics…

How many rooftops in Ukum actually pay

Counted building by building on the cash-saved basis (merit-order sized, valued against what the building spends today), not read off an average. Shares are of the 325,712 buildings with a modelled result out of 344,598 in Ukum. 53,262 clear a positive NPV.

Payback

Under 3 years18,418 (6%)

Under 5 years43,778 (13%)

Under 7 years53,279 (16%)

Under 10 years65,339 (20%)

Return (IRR)

Above 10%62,250 (18%)

Above 15%53,262 (15%)

Above 20%46,278 (13%)

Above 25%38,492 (11%)

CO₂ avoided

45.9 kt/yr

Fuel avoided

10.4 million litres/yr

Energy unlocked

28.6 GWh/yr

Demand that is suppressed today

People served

380k

What hardware costs right now

Median advertised rates from our Nigerian market tracker — the same prices used to cost a system in Ukum.

Solar panels

₦250

₦/W

Inverters

₦127,419

₦/kVA

Batteries

₦177,500

₦/kWh

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Building mix in Ukum

Electricity billing band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
C	123,908	6,306	₦8.99bn	₦8.93bn	5%	17.4 yr
D	98,343	6,742	₦8.17bn	₦8.16bn	5%	17.1 yr
E	79,474	5,154	₦6.88bn	₦6.74bn	5%	17.1 yr
B	42,873	190	₦708m	₦708m	3%	15.6 yr

Load profile

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Residential	337,983	16,090	₦8.39bn	₦8.39bn	5%	17.1 yr
Commercial Retail	3,554	266	₦85.8m	₦85.8m	29%	3.9 yr
Commercial General	1,267	481	₦949m	₦949m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship	951	850	₦654m	₦654m	55%	1.9 yr
Anchor	692	573	₦14.6bn	₦14.4bn	61%	1.6 yr
Industrial	117	99	₦49.5m	₦49.5m	61%	1.6 yr
Productive Use	20	20	₦2.88m	₦2.88m	53%	1.9 yr
Hospitality	13	12	₦6.63m	₦6.63m	57%	1.9 yr
Mall Retail	1	1	₦128k	₦128k	59%	1.9 yr

Roof size band

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Under 30m2	272,819	11,879	₦1.17bn	₦1.17bn	5%	17.9 yr
30 50m2	26,939	1,563	₦322m	₦322m	7%	14.1 yr
50 100m2	25,577	1,797	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	21%	4.9 yr
100 250m2	14,370	1,611	₦2.37bn	₦2.37bn	25%	4.1 yr
250 1000m2	4,157	1,124	₦4.3bn	₦4.3bn	27%	3.9 yr
Over 1000m2	736	418	₦15.5bn	₦15.3bn	61%	1.6 yr

Settlement type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Unclassified	146,018	9,820	₦16.2bn	₦16bn	5%	17.1 yr
Urban	112,611	6,580	₦6.24bn	₦6.23bn	5%	17.1 yr
Urban Centre	44,671	292	₦394m	₦394m	3%	17.6 yr
Dense Urban	20,703	323	₦477m	₦477m	5%	17.4 yr
Rural	20,595	1,377	₦1.47bn	₦1.42bn	5%	16.6 yr

Building type

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Shed	269,067	11,468	₦1.09bn	₦1.09bn	5%	17.6 yr
Residential	26,934	2,766	₦6.17bn	₦6.17bn	17%	4.6 yr
Residential Small	26,713	1,814	₦1.07bn	₦1.07bn	21%	4.9 yr
Residential Informal	15,238	40	₦61.7m	₦61.7m	1%	13.4 yr
Kiosk Shop	3,572	284	₦88.6m	₦88.6m	29%	3.9 yr
Institutional	824	719	₦14.8bn	₦14.6bn	53%	1.9 yr
Commercial	676	69	₦459m	₦459m	35%	3.1 yr
Worship Center	402	364	₦110m	₦110m	59%	1.9 yr
Place Of Worship	241	211	₦32.1m	₦32.1m	53%	1.9 yr
Educational Facility	204	163	₦243m	₦243m	77%	1.4 yr
School	136	95	₦147m	₦147m	73%	1.4 yr
Market	133	128	₦20.6m	₦20.6m	57%	1.9 yr

Land use

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
(Unset)	344,533	18,391	₦24.7bn	₦24.5bn
Farmland	64	1	₦316k	₦316k
Farmyard	1	0	₦58.7k	₦58.7k

Not published for this cube: Median IRR, Median payback.

Lead segment

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)	Median IRR	Median payback
Standard	343,038	17,672	₦9.57bn	₦9.57bn	5%	17.1 yr
SME High	791	84	₦547m	₦547m	35%	3.1 yr
Enterprise	769	636	₦14.6bn	₦14.4bn	61%	1.6 yr

Demand tier

Segment	Buildings	With generator	Spend ₦/yr	Cash saved yr 1 (B)
0.0	269,258	11,618	₦1.1bn	₦1.1bn
3.0	28,199	3,212	₦20.8bn	₦20.6bn
2.0	27,056	1,890	₦1.73bn	₦1.73bn
1.0	13,392	1,652	₦472m	₦472m
4.0	6,068	18	₦234m	₦234m
5.0	559	2	₦205m	₦205m
6.0	66	0	₦176m	₦176m